{"id":434559,"date":"2026-07-24T08:45:17","date_gmt":"2026-07-24T01:45:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/singapore-mas-seen-holding-policy-steady-on-july-27-as-inflation-stays-mild-reuters-poll-shows-434559\/"},"modified":"2026-07-24T08:45:17","modified_gmt":"2026-07-24T01:45:17","slug":"singapore-mas-seen-holding-policy-steady-on-july-27-as-inflation-stays-mild-reuters-poll-shows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/singapore-mas-seen-holding-policy-steady-on-july-27-as-inflation-stays-mild-reuters-poll-shows-434559\/","title":{"rendered":"Singapore &#8211; MAS seen holding policy steady on July 27 as inflation stays mild, Reuters poll shows"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">The Reuters poll points to a majority expectation of an unchanged SGD NEER stance, with core inflation still running below the top of the official 1.5 to 2.5 percent band for 2026. The split view matters for the Singapore dollar: a hold would be seen as consistent with current pricing, while a surprise tightening, as a minority of analysts expect, could see a modestly steeper SGD NEER slope and support for the currency. The stronger than forecast 5.7 percent second quarter GDP print adds a genuine tightening argument, but with energy cost pass-through described as milder than expected so far, the bar for an upward re-centring of the band looks to require a more severe and sustained oil shock rather than the current level of Middle East disruption.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">&#8212;<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">\nMost economists polled by Reuters expect MAS to stay on hold next week, judging current inflation pressures too mild to justify tightening despite the Middle East backdrop.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">Summary:<\/p>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\" class=\"[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3 print:block print:space-y-1\">\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">12 of 16 analysts polled by Reuters expect MAS to keep policy unchanged at its July 27 review, while four expect tightening<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">MAS tightened in April this year after holding steady at its prior three meetings, in January, and in July and October last year<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Middle East tensions have intensified, with Houthi forces imposing a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, risking further energy supply tightening<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">EIU&#8217;s Qi Hang Tay expects a hold, saying core inflation is subdued and energy cost pass-through has been milder and less broad based than expected<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Oxford Economics&#8217; Sheana Yue expects a modest tightening via a steeper SGD NEER slope, citing stronger than expected 5.7 percent year on year second quarter GDP growth and rising oil prices<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Singapore raised electricity tariffs 17 percent for the third quarter due to higher imported natural gas costs, which supply 95 percent of the city-state&#8217;s power<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">DBS&#8217;s Chua Han Teng says current settings remain appropriate given June core and headline inflation of 1.6 percent and 1.9 percent, both within the official 1.5 to 2.5 percent forecast range for 2026<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Authorities are also watching El Nino related weather disruption and its potential impact on food inflation<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">\nSingapore is expected to keep its monetary policy settings unchanged at a scheduled review next week, according to a Reuters poll, with inflation seen as manageable even as the Middle East conflict keeps energy costs elevated. Twelve of 16 analysts surveyed expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore to hold policy steady on July 27, while four expect further tightening.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">The MAS tightened policy in April this year, having left settings unchanged at its three previous meetings in January this year and in July and October last year. The central bank manages monetary conditions through the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate, known as the SGD NEER, adjusting the slope, mid-point and width of an undisclosed trading band rather than through interest rates directly.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">The backdrop for the decision includes an escalating regional conflict, with Yemen&#8217;s Iran-aligned Houthi forces having imposed a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, a development that risks tightening global energy supplies further. Despite that, Economist Intelligence Unit Asia analyst Qi Hang Tay said he expects MAS to hold, noting that core inflation has stayed subdued and that the pass-through from higher energy costs has so far proven milder and less broad based than anticipated. He said an upward re-centring of the policy band would likely require a more severe inflation shock, such as prolonged disruption to regional energy supplies or another sharp jump in global oil prices.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">Not all economists agree. Oxford Economics senior economist Sheana Yue expects MAS to tighten by modestly steepening the SGD NEER slope, pointing to stronger than expected second quarter economic growth as reinforcing the case. Singapore&#8217;s economy grew 5.7 percent year on year in the second quarter, driven by strong AI-related chip demand and coming in just above the 5.5 percent median forecast in a Reuters poll, according to preliminary government data. Yue said that growth performance, combined with the recent rise in oil prices following renewed Middle East tensions, points to a more inflationary outlook over coming quarters through both stronger domestic demand and higher imported costs. Underscoring the energy pressure, Singapore raised electricity tariffs by 17 percent for the third quarter due to soaring prices for imported natural gas, which accounts for 95 percent of the city-state&#8217;s power generation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">DBS senior economist Chua Han Teng took a different view, saying current policy settings remain well positioned to manage inflation risk given that price growth is running low relative to the official forecast. Core and headline inflation stood at 1.6 percent and 1.9 percent respectively in June, according to official data released Thursday, within MAS&#8217;s forecast range of 1.5 to 2.5 percent for core and headline inflation across 2026. Chua added that authorities will continue to closely monitor weather related supply disruptions tied to El Nino and their potential impact on food inflation, a risk that sits alongside the energy cost pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict as key inputs to the MAS decision.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">\n<p>                            This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Reuters poll points to a majority expectation of an unchanged SGD NEER stance, with core inflation still running below the top of the official 1.5 to 2.5 percent band for 2026.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-434559","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/434559","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=434559"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/434559\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=434559"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=434559"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=434559"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}