{"id":434732,"date":"2026-07-27T09:49:54","date_gmt":"2026-07-27T02:49:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/the-australian-dollar-trades-right-at-70-cents-what-westpac-sees-next-434732\/"},"modified":"2026-07-27T09:49:54","modified_gmt":"2026-07-27T02:49:54","slug":"the-australian-dollar-trades-right-at-70-cents-what-westpac-sees-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/the-australian-dollar-trades-right-at-70-cents-what-westpac-sees-next-434732\/","title":{"rendered":"The Australian dollar trades right at 70-cents, what Westpac sees next"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>The Australian dollar is a standout performer to start the week, up 0.3% and trailing only the euro in G10 FX.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts at Westpac are eyeing a modest trendline from early July.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Friday&#8217;s rebound off 0.6965 support and the 0.7000-handle touch keeps AUD&#8217;s low-key\/low-vol July uptrend intact &#8211; it was increasingly looking fatigued after repeated failures &gt; 0.7000 amid US-Iran escalation and new highs in US yields. Weekend news is mixed: de-escalation on the main US-Iran front (US strikes paused, the two sides confirmed as exchanging messages), but the second front in the Red Sea is still escalating. Net net: good for risk appetite and AUD that US-Iran seem to be tacking tentatively toward an off-ramp, but the Red Sea complicates it. Ahead of decisive event risk this week 0.6965 is still the key downside level and sustained time above 0.7000 likely remains elusive.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>That&#8217;s not particularly upbeat but it&#8217;s a tricky week between the Fed and the war. They also focus on domestic risks.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Our defensive bias late last week is reset to &#8220;balanced&#8221; on the weekend&#8217;s tentative de-escalation, with this week&#8217;s data deciding which side of the range we gravitate to. The calendar is dense and potentially decisive: Bullock (Tue), Q2\/Jun CPI (Wed), FOMC (Thu). A soft US Jun CPI gave the Fed breathing space, but that carries less weight after the oil move and fresh tariffs. Even on a hold, expect a thumping hawkish Warsh message and likely 2-3 hike dissents &#8211; no catalyst here for a dovish Fed repricing, though AUD should hold 0.6965 support. With 9bp of hike risk priced, an actual hike does serious AUD damage: a breakdown to the low-0.69s. Locally, a 1.0% qtrly trimmed mean converts a bunch of RBA Aug &#8220;on hold&#8221; calls; on-consensus leaves pricing unchanged; 0.8% cools Aug pricing back toward 5bp. AUD got what it &#8220;needed&#8221; last week &#8211; a 76k jobs surge &#8211; and even that couldn&#8217;t keep it above 0.7000. A strong CPI would do the trick.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>They continue to see 0.7250-0.7300 in the second half of this year in part because of Australia&#8217;s deep reserves of commodities in a world looking ot secure them.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Australian dollar is a standout performer to start the week, up 0.3% and trailing only the euro in G10 FX. Analysts at Westpac are eyeing a modest trendline from early July.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-434732","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/434732","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=434732"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/434732\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=434732"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=434732"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=434732"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}