{"id":434942,"date":"2026-07-29T15:48:18","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T08:48:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/gold-stays-under-pressure-ahead-of-the-fomc-decision-as-traders-hedge-and-middle-east-risks-rise-434942\/"},"modified":"2026-07-29T15:48:18","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T08:48:18","slug":"gold-stays-under-pressure-ahead-of-the-fomc-decision-as-traders-hedge-and-middle-east-risks-rise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/gold-stays-under-pressure-ahead-of-the-fomc-decision-as-traders-hedge-and-middle-east-risks-rise-434942\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold stays under pressure ahead of the FOMC decision as traders hedge and Middle East risks rise"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Gold is trading near weekly lows as the hedging
\n activity into the FOMC decision and renewed escalation on the US-Iran front
\n weighed on the precious metal. <\/p>\n

Iran launched a \u201csurprise attack\u201d against US forces in
\n the region tonight. All the missiles and drones were intercepted, but the
\n escalation increased the risk of a prolonged conflict. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Today, all eyes will be on the FOMC decision. The Fed
\n is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%\u20133.75%. The consensus
\n expects up to two dissenters to vote in favour of a rate hike at this meeting,
\n likely Fed’s Logan and\/or Fed’s Hammack. We won’t get the Summary of Economic
\n Projections (SEP) at this meeting.<\/p>\n

Forward guidance is likely to remain limited, with Fed
\n Chair Warsh expected to refrain from providing any major policy signals while
\n stressing data dependence and the Fed’s commitment to price stability.<\/p>\n

The hawkish surprises include more than two dissenters
\n and a rate hike at this meeting already. The \u201cdovish\u201d surprise, on the other
\n hand, would be a perfect consensus with no dissenters.<\/p>\n

If the Fed delivers a hawkish surprise, we can expect gold
\n to drop into new monthly lows on tightening financial conditions. Conversely, a
\n \u201cdovish\u201d surprise would likely trigger a relief rally with traders starting to
\n position for a possible stagflationary scenario. <\/p>\n

You can read the comprehensive Fed preview here<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see that gold is still hovering around the major downward trendline. The
\n sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above
\n it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to
\n see the price breaking higher to pile in for a rally into the next trendline
\n around the 4,500 level. <\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 4
\n HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we can
\n see the price action has been mostly rangebound since late June, and this
\n leaves traders with little to do other than waiting for technical breakouts or
\n fundamental catalysts. The buyers will need the price to break above the 4,200
\n resistance to gain more conviction for a reversal of the trend. The sellers, on
\n the other hand, will likely step in around the resistance with a defined risk
\n above it to position for a drop into the 3,885 level.<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 1
\n HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, there\u2019s
\n not much we can add here as the near-term direction will be decided by the FOMC
\n decision. A hawkish surprise would trigger a selloff into the 3,885 level and
\n potentially lower, while a dovish surprise would lead to an upside breakout and
\n take us to the 4,200 resistance. The red lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today but in case we get
\n surprises from the FOMC decision, they won\u2019t be respected. <\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a>, we have the FOMC
\n rate decision. Tomorrow, we get the US PCE price index, the Advance Q2 GDP and
\n the Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Q2
\n Employment Cost Index. Traders will also keep monitoring US-Iran developments.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 Gold is trading near weekly lows as the hedging activity into the FOMC decision and renewed escalation on the US-Iran front weighed on the precious metal. Iran launched a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-434942","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/434942","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=434942"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/434942\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=434942"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=434942"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=434942"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}