{"id":434964,"date":"2026-07-29T17:10:15","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T10:10:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/eur-usd-consolidates-at-the-key-1-14-resistance-ahead-of-the-fomc-decision-whats-next-434964\/"},"modified":"2026-07-29T17:10:15","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T10:10:15","slug":"eur-usd-consolidates-at-the-key-1-14-resistance-ahead-of-the-fomc-decision-whats-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/eur-usd-consolidates-at-the-key-1-14-resistance-ahead-of-the-fomc-decision-whats-next-434964\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD consolidates at the key 1.14 resistance ahead of the FOMC decision. What’s next?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

USD:<\/p>\n

The US dollar has been mostly rangebound in the
\n past couple of days as hedging activity into the FOMC decision and renewed
\n escalation on the US-Iran front kept the price action in check. <\/p>\n

Iran launched a \u201csurprise attack\u201d against US forces in
\n the region tonight. All the missiles and drones were intercepted, but the
\n escalation increased the risk of a prolonged conflict and therefore higher
\n energy prices.<\/p>\n

Today, all eyes will be on the FOMC decision. The Fed
\n is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%\u20133.75%. The consensus
\n expects up to two dissenters to vote in favour of a rate hike at this meeting,
\n likely Fed’s Logan and\/or Fed’s Hammack. We won’t get the Summary of Economic
\n Projections (SEP) at this meeting.<\/p>\n

Forward guidance is likely to remain limited, with Fed
\n Chair Warsh expected to refrain from providing any major policy signals while
\n stressing data dependence and the Fed’s commitment to price stability.<\/p>\n

The hawkish surprises include more than two dissenters
\n voting for a rate hike or an outright rate hike. The \u201cdovish\u201d surprise, on the
\n other hand, would be a perfect consensus with no dissenters.<\/p>\n

If the Fed delivers a hawkish surprise, we can expect the
\n US dollar to rally into new monthly highs on the hawkish repricing. Conversely,
\n a \u201cdovish\u201d surprise would likely see hedges getting unwound and weighing on the
\n greenback in the short-term. <\/p>\n

For a more comprehensive Fed preview:\u00a0<\/p>\n