{"id":435097,"date":"2026-07-30T18:13:19","date_gmt":"2026-07-30T11:13:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/boe-leaves-bank-rate-unchanged-at-3-75-in-july-meeting-as-expected-435097\/"},"modified":"2026-07-30T18:13:19","modified_gmt":"2026-07-30T11:13:19","slug":"boe-leaves-bank-rate-unchanged-at-3-75-in-july-meeting-as-expected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/boe-leaves-bank-rate-unchanged-at-3-75-in-july-meeting-as-expected-435097\/","title":{"rendered":"BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 3.75% in July meeting, as expected"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<ul>\n<li>Prior 3.75%<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">Bank rate vote 0-6-3 vs 0-7-2 expected (Greene, Pill, Mann voted for 25 bps rate hike)<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">The impact of the energy shock on the UK economy remains uncertain<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">Monetary policy cannot influence energy prices<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">Policy stance required to achieve 2% inflation target sustainably depends\u00a0on the scale and duration of the shock<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">The risk of material second-round effects\u00a0is greater the longer higher energy prices persist<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">But for now, there is little evidence so far to suggest such effects especially as indicated by recent data<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">The risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside relative to the central projection<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">But there remains scope for the outlook to change materially as events in the Middle East unfold<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">Appropriate to maintain the bank rate at this meeting<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">Stands ready to act as necessary to ensure that inflation remains on track to meet the 2% target in the medium-term<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bankofengland.co.uk\/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes\/2026\/july-2026\" rel=\"follow\">Full statement<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Looking to the discussion statement from the meeting:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">All members agreed that risks to the paths of energy prices remained skewed to the upside<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">All members acknowledged that there had been sustained disinflation pre-conflict<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">But members took varying degrees of reassurance from what this past disinflation implied for the inflation outlook<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">For most members, past disinflation was consistent with a margin of economic slack<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">For other members, this past disinflation was not informative about future inflation<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">Committee agreed that there had been little evidence of material second-round effects so far<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">Will\u00a0continue to monitor forward-looking data to allow timely assessments of the inflation outlook<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">Taking everything into account, the risk of strong inflationary pressures was greater than the risk of weak inflationary pressures<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">Members noted that monetary policy could need to react before the risks around inflation persistence materialised conclusively<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">On the dissent by Greene, Pill, and Mann, it was noted that:<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\"><p>&#8220;These members were less reassured on the underlying disinflationary process, were concerned that second-round effects could be material, and thought it relevant that inflation had exceeded the 2% target for more than five years. For these members, uncertainty about how the conflict would evolve remained high, and so a risk management strategy was appropriate. They believed that a proactive increase in Bank Rate would reduce the probability of second-round effects setting in. Further, research found that setting policy as if there were stronger second-round effects and course correcting if needed, would prove to be less costly than vice versa.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">The dissenters are not really all too surprising. Greene and Pill were more or less lock-ins to dissent today and Mann had been a hawk for the most part besides some flip flopping in recent meetings. So, a 6-3 vote is not all too different from a 7-2 vote in this regard.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">Overall, the statement just reaffirms that they are keeping the door open to raise interest rates again if need be. However, there is not much of a sense of urgency to act now or even in September. That unless the data changes the outlook and forces a reconsideration.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">The statement basically says that there needs to be some evidence of second round effects or more persistent inflation pressures to justify a broader shift among the committee. Otherwise, they will wait and see on what the data has to say before really considering anything else.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">\n<p>                            This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prior 3.75% Bank rate vote 0-6-3 vs 0-7-2 expected (Greene, Pill, Mann voted for 25 bps rate hike) The impact of the energy shock on the UK economy remains uncertain Monetary policy&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-435097","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435097","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=435097"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435097\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=435097"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=435097"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=435097"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}