{"id":435104,"date":"2026-07-30T19:54:52","date_gmt":"2026-07-30T12:54:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/boe-governor-bailey-no-evidence-of-second-round-effects-cannot-draw-too-much-comfort-from-this-435104\/"},"modified":"2026-07-30T19:54:52","modified_gmt":"2026-07-30T12:54:52","slug":"boe-governor-bailey-no-evidence-of-second-round-effects-cannot-draw-too-much-comfort-from-this","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/boe-governor-bailey-no-evidence-of-second-round-effects-cannot-draw-too-much-comfort-from-this-435104\/","title":{"rendered":"BoE Governor Bailey: No evidence of second-round effects; cannot draw too much comfort from this"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<ul>\n<li>We stand ready to adjust our stance as the outlook evolves<\/li>\n<li>UK economic activity is subdued, and the labour market is soft<\/li>\n<li>There is little as of yet to suggest higher energy prices are embedded<\/li>\n<li>While household inflation expectations have fallen, they remain elevated<\/li>\n<li>Pressures are building more slowly than we thought in April<\/li>\n<li>I am seeing broader slowing in domestic inflation<\/li>\n<li>Weak demand is limiting the pass-through of higher costs to prices<\/li>\n<li>Spare capacity in the job market is likely to reduce workers&#8217; capacity to get pay rises<\/li>\n<li>The lack of evidence so far does not rule out future second-round effects<\/li>\n<li>Our overall assessment of second-round effects remains tentative<\/li>\n<li>If the Middle East conflict persists and we get 2nd-round effects, we will likely need to raise rates<\/li>\n<li>Current market pricing reflects risk premia rather than central expectations for the bank rate<\/li>\n<li>The rate curve seems in a reasonable position<\/li>\n<li>Should attach a lower than usual probability to the BoE&#8217;s central scenario<\/li>\n<li>The central view in the market is that rates will stay on hold<\/li>\n<li>Do not leave this room thinking that the BoE is edging towards a hike<\/li>\n<li>We are not talking about an insurance hike<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>                            This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We stand ready to adjust our stance as the outlook evolves UK economic activity is subdued, and the labour market is soft There is little as of yet to suggest higher energy&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-435104","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435104","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=435104"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435104\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=435104"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=435104"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=435104"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}