{"id":435155,"date":"2026-07-31T14:27:17","date_gmt":"2026-07-31T07:27:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/gold-fails-to-extend-gains-as-traders-await-the-us-cpi-and-middle-east-developments-435155\/"},"modified":"2026-07-31T14:27:17","modified_gmt":"2026-07-31T07:27:17","slug":"gold-fails-to-extend-gains-as-traders-await-the-us-cpi-and-middle-east-developments","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/gold-fails-to-extend-gains-as-traders-await-the-us-cpi-and-middle-east-developments-435155\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold fails to extend gains as traders await the US CPI and Middle East developments"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Gold strengthened following the FOMC decision despite three dissenters
\n voting for a rate hike. The consensus was that Fed’s Logan and Fed’s Hammack
\n would prefer a rate increase, but we also got Fed’s Kashkari.<\/p>\n

I guess the fact that Fed’s Kashkari is a hawkish member, combined with the
\n roughly 30% probability of a rate hike that was priced in before the release,
\n led to some hedges getting unwound, even though nothing has changed in the
\n bigger picture. The post-decision gains were eventually fully erased. <\/p>\n

Fed Chair Warsh didn’t offer any clues about the next meeting as he
\n continues to limit forward guidance. Therefore, the next big event will be the
\n US CPI report on the 12th of August as the data will likely decide
\n whether the Fed hikes in September or not. <\/p>\n

On the geopolitical side, the situation in the Middle East has barely
\n changed, although Trump\u2019s rhetoric seems to have softened a bit. Nevertheless,
\n until we get a clear de-escalation, inflation risks will remain skewed to the
\n upside.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n

Yesterday, gold got a boost from strong selling in the US dollar as Japan
\n and South Korea intervened in the FX market. The moves in the USD\/JPY pair were
\n massive. Those flows spilled over to other markets which coupled with month-end
\n trading made for a very noisy and volatile day. <\/p>\n

All in all, we are fundamentally in the same position we were before the
\n FOMC meeting, so now it\u2019s just about waiting for the US CPI and the US-Iran
\n developments. <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see that gold is breaking above the downward trendline. We can expect the buyers
\n to step in around these levels with a defined risk below the broken trendline
\n to position for a rally into the next trendline around the 4,400 level. The
\n sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back below the trendline
\n to pile in for a drop into the 3,885 level next.<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 4
\n HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we can
\n see the price action has been mostly rangebound since late June, and this
\n leaves traders with little to do other than waiting for technical breakouts or
\n fundamental catalysts. The buyers will need the price to break above the 4,200
\n resistance to gain more conviction for a reversal of the trend. The sellers, on
\n the other hand, will likely step in around the resistance with a defined risk
\n above it to position for a drop into the 3,885 level.<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 1
\n HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, we
\n have a minor resistance zone around the 4,120 level where the price got
\n rejected from several times in the past weeks. The sellers will likely step in
\n around the resistance with a defined risk above it to keep targeting new lows,
\n while the buyers will look for a break to increase the bullish bets into the 4,200
\n resistance. The red lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today.<\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a>, we conclude the
\n week with the US Q2 Employment Cost Index. Traders will also keep monitoring
\n US-Iran developments.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 Gold strengthened following the FOMC decision despite three dissenters voting for a rate hike. The consensus was that Fed’s Logan and Fed’s Hammack would prefer a rate increase, but…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-435155","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435155","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=435155"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435155\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=435155"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=435155"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=435155"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}