{"id":435308,"date":"2026-08-03T18:14:17","date_gmt":"2026-08-03T11:14:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/indian-rupee-surges-after-massive-dollar-selling-intervention-what-to-look-for-next-435308\/"},"modified":"2026-08-03T18:14:17","modified_gmt":"2026-08-03T11:14:17","slug":"indian-rupee-surges-after-massive-dollar-selling-intervention-what-to-look-for-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/indian-rupee-surges-after-massive-dollar-selling-intervention-what-to-look-for-next-435308\/","title":{"rendered":"Indian Rupee surges after massive dollar-selling intervention. What to look for next?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

USD:<\/p>\n

The US dollar sold off across the board in the final part of last week. The
\n initial weakness came from the FOMC rate decision as the extra dissent from Fed\u2019s
\n Kashkari wasn\u2019t taken as a major hawkish surprise. <\/p>\n

On Thursday, we had heavy dollar-selling flows stemming from interventions by
\n Japan and South Korea. The losses then extended on Friday when reports confirmed
\n that US Treasury participated in the intervention, the first joint operation
\n since 2011. Moreover, both Japan’s Ministry of Finance and US Treasury
\n Secretary Bessent have said that they will not hesitate to conduct more joint
\n interventions in the future.<\/p>\n

Given that USD\/JPY is now trading around April-May levels, there\u2019s a low
\n probability of another intervention in the near-future, so the greenback should
\n go back trading on fundamentals. <\/p>\n

Overall, the fundamentals haven\u2019t changed much, so it\u2019s just about waiting
\n for the US CPI and further US-Iran developments. A de-escalation would keep the
\n greenback under pressure on easing inflationary worries and lower rate hike
\n probabilities. An escalation, on the other hand, should continue to support it
\n on Fed tightening risks. <\/p>\n

INR:<\/p>\n

On the INR side, the
\n Rupee has benefited from the lack of major hawkish surprises at the FOMC
\n decision, heavy US dollar-selling flows and positive US-Iran headlines. <\/p>\n

In hindsight, the
\n RBI\u2019s intervention near record lows was well-timed, but going forward the Rupee
\n will need a dovish repricing for Fed interest rate expectations and further
\n de-escalation in the Middle East to extend the gains.<\/p>\n

On Wednesday, we
\n have the RBI rate decision which is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at
\n 5.25%. The MPC is expected to maintain its neutral stance. The RBI may deliver cautionary
\n or slightly hawkish tone. A few investment banks expect the central bank to
\n signal that continued global volatility or sustained spikes in crude prices
\n could force rate hikes in the second half of FY27.<\/p>\n

In the big
\n picture, the Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US dollar,
\n so dip-buyers will continue to look for opportunities around strong technical
\n levels to keep pushing the USD\/INR pair into new highs. <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily
\n chart, we can see that USDINR<\/a>extended the drop below the key 96.10 support zone following heavy dollar-selling
\n flows triggered by FX interventions. The price is approaching the next key zone
\n around the 95.10 level. <\/p>\n

That\u2019s where we
\n can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to
\n position for a rally back into the 96.10 resistance. The sellers, on the other
\n hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets
\n into the 94.00 handle next.<\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour
\n chart, we can see the price action is forming a potential falling wedge. This is
\n generally a reversal pattern as it signals waning momentum. The sellers will
\n continue to lean on the top trendline with a defined risk above it to keep
\n pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break to pile in for a
\n rally into the 96.10 resistance.<\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour
\n chart, there\u2019s not much we can add here as the sellers will have a better risk
\n to reward setup around the top trendline, while the buyers will either wait for
\n a break or a drop into the 95.10 support zone. <\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a>, we have the US
\n ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tomorrow, we get the US Job Openings data. On Wednesday,
\n we have the RBI rate decision, the US ADP and ISM Services PMI. On Thursday, we
\n get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with
\n the US NFP report. <\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 USD: The US dollar sold off across the board in the final part of last week. The initial weakness came from the FOMC rate decision as the extra dissent…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-435308","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435308","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=435308"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435308\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=435308"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=435308"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=435308"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}