{"id":435397,"date":"2026-08-04T18:04:41","date_gmt":"2026-08-04T11:04:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/eur-usd-surges-above-1-15-helped-by-yen-intervention-focus-shifts-back-to-fundamentals-435397\/"},"modified":"2026-08-04T18:04:41","modified_gmt":"2026-08-04T11:04:41","slug":"eur-usd-surges-above-1-15-helped-by-yen-intervention-focus-shifts-back-to-fundamentals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/eur-usd-surges-above-1-15-helped-by-yen-intervention-focus-shifts-back-to-fundamentals-435397\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD surges above 1.15 helped by yen intervention; focus shifts back to fundamentals"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

USD:<\/p>\n

The US dollar sold off across the board in the final part of last week. The
\n initial weakness came from the FOMC rate decision as the extra dissent from
\n Fed\u2019s Kashkari wasn\u2019t taken as a major hawkish surprise. <\/p>\n

On Thursday, we had heavy dollar-selling flows stemming from interventions
\n by Japan and South Korea. The losses then extended on Friday when reports
\n confirmed that US Treasury participated in the intervention, the first joint
\n operation since 2011. Moreover, both Japan’s Ministry of Finance and US
\n Treasury Secretary Bessent have said that they will not hesitate to conduct
\n more joint interventions in the future.<\/p>\n

Given that USD\/JPY is now trading around April-May levels, there\u2019s a low
\n probability of another intervention in the near-future, so the greenback should
\n go back trading on fundamentals. <\/p>\n

Overall, the fundamentals haven\u2019t changed much, so it\u2019s just about waiting
\n for the US CPI and further US-Iran developments. A de-escalation would keep the
\n greenback under pressure on easing inflationary worries and lower rate hike
\n probabilities. An escalation, on the other hand, should continue to support it
\n on Fed tightening risks. Finally, a hot CPI would probably seal a rate hike at
\n the September meeting. <\/p>\n

EUR:<\/p>\n

On the EUR side, the ECB left
\n interest rates unchanged at the last meeting but communicated via the usual
\n post-meeting media \u201cleaks\u201d that it\u2019s ready to hike at the September meeting if
\n the inflation outlook were to deteriorate. <\/p>\n

The majority of
\n policymakers that spoke after the decision stressed data-dependence and
\n refrained from pre-committing to a policy move in September. They have also
\n highlighted the lack of clear evidence of second-round effects and stable
\n inflation expectations. <\/p>\n

Nevertheless, the market
\n pricing is favouring a rate hike with 72% chance of an increase in September
\n priced in. The Eurozone Flash CPI report on Friday showed core inflation
\n ticking higher to 2.5% vs 2.4% in the prior month, which keeps the September
\n meeting live. Without a definitive de-escalation in the Middle East and an
\n easing in core inflation data in the next report, the ECB will have no choice
\n but to deliver a rate hike.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

EURUSD TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see that EURUSD<\/a>finally broke above the
\n downward trendline around the 1.1420 level and extended the gains into the 1.1550
\n level where the price rejected another major trendline. The sellers will likely
\n continue to step in around the trendline with a defined risk above it to
\n position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for
\n a break to increase the bullish bets into the 1.1850 level next.<\/p>\n

EURUSD TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we now
\n have a key swing low around the 1.1455 level. If the price gets there, we can
\n expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to keep
\n pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break
\n to increase the bearish bets into new lows.<\/p>\n

EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013
\n 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, there\u2019s
\n not much we can add here as the price action might remain rangebound until we
\n get fresh catalysts from the US-Iran front or US economic data. The red lines
\n define the average daily range<\/a> for today.<\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a>, we get the US Job
\n Openings data. Tomorrow, we have the US ADP and ISM Services PMI. On Thursday,
\n we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week
\n with the US NFP report. The US-Iran developments will remain in focus.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 USD: The US dollar sold off across the board in the final part of last week. The initial weakness came from the FOMC rate decision as the extra dissent…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-435397","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435397","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=435397"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435397\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=435397"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=435397"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=435397"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}