{"id":435499,"date":"2026-08-05T17:22:03","date_gmt":"2026-08-05T10:22:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/gold-surges-above-4100-as-expectations-for-a-us-iran-deal-reduce-inflation-fed-tightening-risk-435499\/"},"modified":"2026-08-05T17:22:03","modified_gmt":"2026-08-05T10:22:03","slug":"gold-surges-above-4100-as-expectations-for-a-us-iran-deal-reduce-inflation-fed-tightening-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/gold-surges-above-4100-as-expectations-for-a-us-iran-deal-reduce-inflation-fed-tightening-risk-435499\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold surges above $4,100 as expectations for a US-Iran deal reduce inflation, Fed tightening risk"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Gold has finally found some footing after a couple of headlines yesterday
\n pointed to an imminent US-Iran deal.\u00a0The initial boost came from Qatari mediators saying that the language for a
\n possible US-Iran agreement had been drafted.<\/p>\n

Momentum then gathered pace when US Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that an Iran deal could come as soon as toda<\/a>y and would include the reopening
\n of the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

The market reaction was pretty straightforward: risk assets surged and oil
\n prices fell on easing inflation concerns and reduced Fed tightening risk. The
\n latter has also supported gold, as real yields and the US dollar declined.<\/p>\n

Barring another escalation, the upside should remain supported in the short
\n term. The next test will come next week with the release of the US CPI report.
\n The data will be critical for the September FOMC decision and the Jackson Hole
\n Symposium. <\/p>\n

A hot report would likely trigger a selloff in gold as traders would increase
\n bets on a September rate hike. A soft report, on the other hand, would reduce further
\n the risk of Fed tightening and give gold another boost.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see that gold has now confirmed the break above the downward trendline and has
\n opened the door for a rally into the next major trendline around the 4,500
\n level. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline
\n with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into the 3,885 level. The
\n buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bullish bets
\n into new record highs.<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 4
\n HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we can
\n see the price action has been mostly rangebound since late June due to the
\n US-Iran crisis, but the recent positive developments could lead to a breakout. The
\n buyers will need the price to break above the 4,200 resistance to gain more
\n conviction for a reversal of the trend. The sellers, on the other hand, will
\n likely step in around the resistance with a defined risk above it to position
\n for a drop into the 3,885 level next.<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 1
\n HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, we can
\n see the price broke above the minor resistance zone around the 4,120 level
\n following the news about an imminent US-Iran deal. If the price pulls back to
\n retest the resistance-turned-support, we can expect the buyers to step in with
\n a defined risk below the minor upward trendline to keep targeting a break above
\n the 4,200 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
\n price breaking lower to pile back in for a drop into the 3,885 level next. The
\n red lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today.<\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a>, we have the US
\n ADP and ISM Services PMI. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims
\n figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 Gold has finally found some footing after a couple of headlines yesterday pointed to an imminent US-Iran deal.\u00a0The initial boost came from Qatari mediators saying that the language for…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-435499","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435499","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=435499"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435499\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=435499"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=435499"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=435499"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}