{"id":435516,"date":"2026-08-06T01:14:46","date_gmt":"2026-08-05T18:14:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/the-canadian-dollar-is-thinking-about-a-breakout-despite-the-rout-in-oil-prices-435516\/"},"modified":"2026-08-06T01:14:46","modified_gmt":"2026-08-05T18:14:46","slug":"the-canadian-dollar-is-thinking-about-a-breakout-despite-the-rout-in-oil-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/the-canadian-dollar-is-thinking-about-a-breakout-despite-the-rout-in-oil-prices-435516\/","title":{"rendered":"The Canadian dollar is thinking about a breakout despite the rout in oil prices"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>The Canadian dollar is the top-performing G10 currency today as it plays catch-up to the positive momentum in risk assets this week. USD\/CAD is down 56 pips on the day to 1.4005.<\/p>\n<p>The drop brings some notable levels into play, starting with the big figure. Below that are a pair of recent lows at 1.3990 and 1.3982.\u00a0 In terms of the technicals, the 1.3982 level was also precisely the 38.2% retracement level from the May-June rally. If that cracks, I would highlight the 50% retracement at 1.3899 as a target or even 1.3817, which is the 61.8% retracement.<\/p>\n<p>On the fundamental side, the Canadian economy posted strong Q2 GDP numbers and that&#8217;s led to something of a snapback but the bigger picture is more important. The market is feeling better about global growth and the sustainability of AI capex. In addition, today&#8217;s gold rally is a powerful Canadian dollar tailwind. Trade numbers in the past year have shown big swings in Canada&#8217;s trade balance based on gold exports. I suspect there could also be big fund flows in\/out of Canadian mining companies, which are some of the largest in the world.<\/p>\n<p>The crude oil side is a drag at the moment. There&#8217;s optimism Hormuz will reopen and that&#8217;s weighed heavily on oil this week. Despite that, the loonie has held the line this week.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Zooming out, there will need to be some clarity on a US-Canada trade deal to get some real investment into Canada.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Canadian dollar is the top-performing G10 currency today as it plays catch-up to the positive momentum in risk assets this week. USD\/CAD is down 56 pips on the day to 1.4005.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-435516","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435516","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=435516"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435516\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=435516"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=435516"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=435516"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}