{"id":435558,"date":"2026-08-06T14:34:55","date_gmt":"2026-08-06T07:34:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/whats-driving-the-indian-rupee-right-now-and-whats-next-435558\/"},"modified":"2026-08-06T14:34:55","modified_gmt":"2026-08-06T07:34:55","slug":"whats-driving-the-indian-rupee-right-now-and-whats-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/whats-driving-the-indian-rupee-right-now-and-whats-next-435558\/","title":{"rendered":"What’s driving the Indian Rupee right now and what’s next?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

USD:<\/p>\n

The US dollar weakened across the board on Tuesday after a couple of
\n headlines pointed to an imminent US-Iran deal. The weakness started when Qatari
\n mediators reported that the language for a possible US-Iran agreement had been
\n drafted.<\/p>\n

The momentum then gathered pace when US Treasury Secretary Bessent
\n confirmed that an Iran deal could have come as soon as yesterday and would have
\n included the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

The US dollar losses started to get trimmed late yesterday probably because
\n the anticipated timeline for the deal passed without
\n an announcement. Nevertheless, the hopes for a deal will likely keep the
\n greenback on the backfoot for now unless we get another escalation. <\/p>\n

The next major event will be the US CPI report next week. The data will be
\n critical for the September FOMC decision and the Jackson Hole Symposium. <\/p>\n

A hot report will likely trigger a rally in the US dollar, with traders increasing
\n rate hike bets. A soft report, on the other hand, should reduce further the
\n risk of Fed tightening and put more pressure on the greenback<\/p>\n

INR:<\/p>\n

On the INR side, the
\n Rupee extended the gains on Tuesday after Qatari mediators and US Treasury Secretary
\n Bessent suggested a deal with Iran was imminent and it included the reopening
\n of the Strait of Hormuz. <\/p>\n

The gains
\n eventually started to fade probably because the anticipated timeline for the
\n deal passed without an announcement. Moreover, the RBI left the repo rate
\n unchanged at 5.25% maintaining the neutral stance. Governor Malhotra stressed
\n data dependence and said that they are neither hawkish nor dovish. The lack of
\n hawkish guidance likely weighed further on the rupee. <\/p>\n

In the big
\n picture, the Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US dollar,
\n so dip-buyers will continue to look for opportunities around strong technical
\n levels to keep pushing the USD\/INR pair into new highs. <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily
\n chart, we can see that USDINR<\/a>bounced around the key 95.10 support zone as the buyers stepped in
\n with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally back into the
\n 96.10 resistance. The sellers will need the price to break below the 95.10
\n support to open the door for a drop into the 94.00 handle next. <\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour
\n chart, we can see the price is breaking above the downward trendline that was
\n defining the bearish momentum. We can expect the buyers to increase the bullish
\n bets around these levels with a defined risk below the trendline to keep
\n targeting the 96.10 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will need to
\n wait for a break below the 95.10 support to gain conviction for a move into new
\n lows.<\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour
\n chart, we now have a minor upward trendline defining the current momentum. If
\n we get a pullback, the buyers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined
\n risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand,
\n will want to see the price breaking below the trendline and the support to pile
\n in for a drop into the 94.00 handle next.<\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a>, we get the latest
\n US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US NFP
\n report. <\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 USD: The US dollar weakened across the board on Tuesday after a couple of headlines pointed to an imminent US-Iran deal. The weakness started when Qatari mediators reported that…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-435558","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435558","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=435558"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435558\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=435558"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=435558"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=435558"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}