{"id":435589,"date":"2026-08-06T17:40:06","date_gmt":"2026-08-06T10:40:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/the-dollars-next-move-hinges-on-inflation-while-the-yen-waits-for-the-boj-435589\/"},"modified":"2026-08-06T17:40:06","modified_gmt":"2026-08-06T10:40:06","slug":"the-dollars-next-move-hinges-on-inflation-while-the-yen-waits-for-the-boj","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/the-dollars-next-move-hinges-on-inflation-while-the-yen-waits-for-the-boj-435589\/","title":{"rendered":"The dollar’s next move hinges on inflation, while the yen waits for the BoJ"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

USD:<\/p>\n

The US dollar weakened across the board on Tuesday after a couple of
\n headlines pointed to an imminent US-Iran deal. The weakness started when Qatari
\n mediators reported that the language for a possible US-Iran agreement had been
\n drafted.<\/p>\n

The momentum then gathered pace when US Treasury Secretary Bessent
\n confirmed that an Iran deal could have come as soon as yesterday and would have
\n included the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

The US dollar losses started to get trimmed late yesterday probably because
\n the anticipated timeline for the deal passed without
\n an announcement. Nevertheless, the hopes for a deal will likely keep the
\n greenback on the backfoot for now unless we get another escalation. <\/p>\n

The next major event will be the US CPI report next week. The data will be
\n critical for the September FOMC decision and the Jackson Hole Symposium. <\/p>\n

A hot report will likely trigger a rally in the US dollar, with traders increasing
\n rate hike bets. A soft report, on the other hand, should reduce further the
\n risk of Fed tightening and put more pressure on the greenback<\/p>\n

JPY:<\/p>\n

On the JPY side, not much
\n has changed after last week\u2019s massive intervention. The only notable
\n development was US
\n Treasury Secretary Bessent\u2019s remarks to CNBC<\/a> potentially hinting to a
\n faster BoJ tightening pace. <\/p>\n

In fact, he stated that
\n “it will require policy to follow up on the intervention” and added
\n that the “US would not have joined if it was not optimistic about Japan
\n policies\u201d. Japan\u2019s currency diplomat Mimura stated that he had a shared understanding
\n with the BoJ following the intervention, which might be another hint to faster
\n rate hikes. \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Overall, without a change
\n in the fundamentals, the interventions will continue to be just clearing events
\n to rebuild positions at better levels. The trend is unlikely to change without
\n a dovish repricing in Fed interest rate expectations or a faster BoJ tightening
\n pace.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

USDJPY TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see that USDJPY<\/a>is slowly recovering ground
\n after the intervention and position squaring took the pair near the 155.00
\n handle. There\u2019s not much we can glean from this timeframe as the nearest key
\n resistance stands around the 160.50 level. If the price gets there, we can
\n expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to
\n position for a drop back into the 155.00 handle. The buyers, on the other hand,
\n will look for a break to increase the bullish bets into new highs.<\/p>\n

USDJPY TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we
\n have a minor resistance zone around the 158.50 level where the price got
\n rejected from several times. That\u2019s where we can expect the sellers to step in
\n with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop back into the
\n 155.00 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase
\n the bullish bets into the 160.50 resistance. <\/p>\n

USDJPY TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, we
\n have a minor support zone around the 157.20 level. If we get a pullback, we can
\n expect the buyers to step in around the support with a defined risk below it to
\n keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break to pile in
\n for a drop into the 155.00 handle. The red lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today. <\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a>, we get the latest
\n US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US NFP
\n report. <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 USD: The US dollar weakened across the board on Tuesday after a couple of headlines pointed to an imminent US-Iran deal. The weakness started when Qatari mediators reported that…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-435589","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435589","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=435589"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435589\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=435589"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=435589"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=435589"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}