{"id":435610,"date":"2026-08-07T00:48:29","date_gmt":"2026-08-06T17:48:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/preview-july-non-farm-payrolls-by-the-numbers-435610\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T00:48:29","modified_gmt":"2026-08-06T17:48:29","slug":"preview-july-non-farm-payrolls-by-the-numbers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/preview-july-non-farm-payrolls-by-the-numbers-435610\/","title":{"rendered":"Preview: July non-farm payrolls by the numbers"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>What&#8217;s expected:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Consensus estimate +80K (range +10K to +140K)<\/li>\n<li>June +57%<\/li>\n<li>Private consensus estimate +78K<\/li>\n<li>Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.2% vs 4.2% prior<\/li>\n<li>Participation rate consensus 61.5% prior<\/li>\n<li>Prior underemployment U6 prior 7.9%<\/li>\n<li>Avg hourly earnings y\/y exp +3.5% y\/y vs +3.5% prior<\/li>\n<li>Avg hourly earnings m\/m exp +0.3% vs +0.3% prior<\/li>\n<li>Avg weekly hours exp 34.3 vs 34.3 prior<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>July jobs so far:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>ADP employment report 44K vs 65K expected and +95K prior<\/li>\n<li>ISM services employment 47.4 vs 51.2 prior (four month low)<\/li>\n<li>ISM manufacturing employment 52.8 vs 50.0 exp and 49.7 prior<\/li>\n<li>Challenger Job Cuts 33,429 vs 45,849 prior<\/li>\n<li>Philly employment +10.0 vs +7.9 prior<\/li>\n<li>Empire employment +11.4 vs +9.6 prior<\/li>\n<li>Initial jobless claims survey week 187K (lowest since 1969) vs 226K prior<\/li>\n<li>Revelio Labs +79.2K vs +125.35K prior<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In terms of seasonals, it&#8217;s very close to balanced for the July print, with both the headline and unemployment rate about a coin flip.<\/p>\n<p>The market isn&#8217;t overly focused on jobs at the moment as there doesn&#8217;t appear to be a strong trend and the last number of months have been in a range that doesn&#8217;t cause concern. I think the market is leaning lower than the consensus after ISM services and ADP but I don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s particularly tradable, especially given USD\/JPY intervention.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>In terms of monetary policy, I think a Sept hike should be baked in but it&#8217;s only at 59%. A strong jobs report could add to that while I don&#8217;t think a weak one would hurt it particularly badly given the good numbers in the latter half of H1. If you&#8217;re the Fed, would you think that a Sept hike would derail the labor market?<\/p>\n<p>In the aftermath of the report, the place to watch will be the Treasury market. Yields have been grinding higher without much fanfare. There has been a reprieve on hopes for a Hormuz deal but that&#8217;s a tough trade to life and die on.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Watch the wage numbers closely as even a 0.1 pp beat on the monthly number could tip the FOMC balance.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What&#8217;s expected: Consensus estimate +80K (range +10K to +140K) June +57% Private consensus estimate +78K Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.2% vs 4.2% prior Participation rate consensus 61.5% prior Prior underemployment U6 prior&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-435610","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435610","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=435610"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435610\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=435610"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=435610"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=435610"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}