{"id":435783,"date":"2026-08-10T14:31:16","date_gmt":"2026-08-10T07:31:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/the-usd-is-at-a-crossroads-ahead-of-cpi-while-the-aud-awaits-rba-rate-decision-435783\/"},"modified":"2026-08-10T14:31:16","modified_gmt":"2026-08-10T07:31:16","slug":"the-usd-is-at-a-crossroads-ahead-of-cpi-while-the-aud-awaits-rba-rate-decision","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/the-usd-is-at-a-crossroads-ahead-of-cpi-while-the-aud-awaits-rba-rate-decision-435783\/","title":{"rendered":"The USD is at a crossroads ahead of CPI, while the AUD awaits RBA rate decision"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

USD:<\/p>\n

The US dollar weakened across the board on Friday following a softer than expected
\n NFP report, with the headline showing negative payroll growth and average
\n hourly earnings missing forecasts by a notable margin.<\/p>\n

The data triggered a dovish repricing in interest rate expectations, with
\n the probability of a September rate hike falling to 38%, compared with 54%
\n before the release. Market pricing has normalised since then, with the
\n probability of a September hike rising back to 48%.<\/p>\n

The reason for this whipsaw in expectations is that there was a significant
\n loss of government jobs, which made the report look much softer than it
\n actually was. The unemployment rate painted a different picture, falling
\n further to 4.1%. Overall, the labour market remains on a better trajectory than
\n it has been over the past three years.<\/p>\n

The next major event will be the US CPI report on Wednesday. The data will
\n be critical for the September FOMC decision and the Jackson Hole Symposium. <\/p>\n

A hot report will likely trigger a rally in the US dollar, with traders increasing
\n rate hike bets. A soft report, on the other hand, should reduce further the
\n risk of Fed tightening and put more pressure on the greenback<\/p>\n

AUD:<\/p>\n

On the AUD side, the RBA is
\n expected to keep the Cash Rate unchanged tomorrow at 4.35% following a series
\n of soft economic data. In fact, the labour market has eased faster than
\n expected and the Q2 CPI came lower than RBA\u2019s forecasts. At this meeting, the
\n RBA will also release the updated SMP where unemployment is expected to be revised
\n higher, while inflation lower. \u00a0<\/p>\n

The focus will likely be on
\n the last paragraph of the Board\u2019s statement where in June it said \u201cmonetary
\n policy is well placed to respond to developments and the Board is focused on
\n its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment. It will do what it
\n considers necessary to achieve that outcome, including increasing the cash rate
\n target further if required. Today\u2019s policy decision was unanimous\u201d. <\/p>\n

The consensus is for the Board
\n to keep it unchanged maintaining the hawkish bias. A removal of \u201cincluding
\n increasing the cash rate target further if required\u201d would be taken as a dovish
\n surprise. The attention will then shift to the press conference for potential
\n policy signals from RBA Governor Bullock.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

AUDUSD TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see that AUDUSD<\/a>is trading near the key
\n resistance zone around the 0.7085 level. That\u2019s where we can expect the sellers
\n to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop into
\n the 0.6835 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
\n breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 0.72 handle next. <\/p>\n

AUDUSD TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, the price
\n action into the resistance looks to be forming a rising wedge. This is generally
\n a reversal pattern with the base of the wedge as the first target. The sellers
\n will want to see the price breaking below the bottom trendline to increase the
\n bearish bets into new lows, while the buyers will continue to lean on the
\n trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. <\/p>\n

AUDUSD TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, there\u2019s
\n not much we can add here as the sellers will look for opportunities around the
\n resistance and on the break of the bottom trendline, while the buyers will be
\n leaning on the trendline to keep targeting new highs or wait for a break above
\n the resistance. The red lines define average daily range<\/a> for today. <\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Tomorrow<\/a>, we have the RBA
\n rate decision. On Wednesday, we have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get the
\n US PPI data and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude
\n the week with the US Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
\n report. <\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 USD: The US dollar weakened across the board on Friday following a softer than expected NFP report, with the headline showing negative payroll growth and average hourly earnings missing…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-435783","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435783","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=435783"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435783\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=435783"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=435783"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=435783"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}