{"id":435811,"date":"2026-08-10T17:00:17","date_gmt":"2026-08-10T10:00:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/usd-jpy-whipsaws-on-soft-nfp-report-as-jpy-continues-to-erase-intervention-gains-whats-next-435811\/"},"modified":"2026-08-10T17:00:17","modified_gmt":"2026-08-10T10:00:17","slug":"usd-jpy-whipsaws-on-soft-nfp-report-as-jpy-continues-to-erase-intervention-gains-whats-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/usd-jpy-whipsaws-on-soft-nfp-report-as-jpy-continues-to-erase-intervention-gains-whats-next-435811\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY whipsaws on soft NFP report as JPY continues to erase intervention gains. What’s next?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

USD:<\/p>\n

The US dollar weakened across the board on Friday following a softer than expected
\n NFP
\n report<\/a>, with the headline showing negative payroll growth and average
\n hourly earnings missing forecasts by a notable margin.<\/p>\n

The data triggered a dovish repricing in interest rate expectations, with
\n the probability of a September rate hike falling to 38%, compared with 54%
\n before the release. Market pricing has normalised since then, with the
\n probability of a September hike rising back to 48%.<\/p>\n

The reason for this whipsaw in expectations is that there was a significant
\n loss of government jobs, which made the report look much softer than it
\n actually was. The unemployment rate painted a different picture, falling
\n further to 4.1%. Overall, the labour market remains on a better trajectory than
\n it has been over the past three years.<\/p>\n

The next major event will be the US CPI report on Wednesday. The data will
\n be critical for the September FOMC decision and the Jackson Hole Symposium. <\/p>\n

A hot report will likely trigger a rally in the US dollar, with traders increasing
\n rate hike bets. A soft report, on the other hand, should reduce further the
\n risk of Fed tightening and put more pressure on the greenback<\/p>\n

JPY:<\/p>\n

On the JPY side, not much
\n has changed after the intervention. The only notable development was US Treasury Secretary Bessent\u2019s
\n remarks to CNBC<\/a>
\n potentially hinting to a faster BoJ tightening pace. <\/p>\n

In fact, he stated that
\n “it will require policy to follow up on the intervention” and added
\n that the “US would not have joined if it was not optimistic about Japan
\n policies\u201d. Japan\u2019s currency diplomat Mimura stated that he had a shared
\n understanding with the BoJ following the intervention, which might be another
\n hint to faster rate hikes.\u00a0\u00a0 <\/p>\n

Overall, without a change
\n in the fundamentals, the interventions will continue to be just clearing events
\n to rebuild positions at better levels. The trend is unlikely to change without
\n a dovish repricing in Fed interest rate expectations or a faster BoJ tightening
\n pace.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

USDJPY TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see that USDJPY<\/a>is slowly recovering ground
\n after the intervention, with the first major target being the resistance zone
\n around the 160.50 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to
\n step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop back
\n into the 155.00 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to
\n increase the bullish bets into new cycle highs.<\/p>\n

USDJPY TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we now
\n have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we were to get a
\n pullback into it, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with a
\n defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other
\n hand, will look for a break to pile in for a drop into the 155.00 handle next. <\/p>\n

USDJPY TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, we can
\n see the price is breaking above the minor 158.50 resistance. We can expect the
\n buyers to increase the bullish bets around these levels with a defined risk
\n below the resistance to keep pushing into the 160.50 level. The sellers, on the
\n other hand, will want to see the price falling back below the resistance to target
\n a pullback into the trendline. The red lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today. <\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

On Wednesday<\/a>, we
\n have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get the US PPI data and the latest US
\n Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail
\n Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 USD: The US dollar weakened across the board on Friday following a softer than expected NFP report, with the headline showing negative payroll growth and average hourly earnings missing…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-435811","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435811","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=435811"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/435811\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=435811"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=435811"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=435811"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}