{"id":436075,"date":"2026-08-12T16:00:24","date_gmt":"2026-08-12T09:00:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/usd-jpy-stalls-ahead-of-a-key-us-cpi-report-boj-expected-to-raise-rates-in-september-436075\/"},"modified":"2026-08-12T16:00:24","modified_gmt":"2026-08-12T09:00:24","slug":"usd-jpy-stalls-ahead-of-a-key-us-cpi-report-boj-expected-to-raise-rates-in-september","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/usd-jpy-stalls-ahead-of-a-key-us-cpi-report-boj-expected-to-raise-rates-in-september-436075\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY stalls ahead of a key US CPI report; BoJ expected to raise rates in September"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

USD:<\/p>\n

The US dollar has recovered most of the losses triggered by the softer than
\n expected NFP report<\/a>as the September rate hike probabilities rose back to
\n 50%. <\/p>\n

The reason for this whipsaw in expectations is that there was a significant
\n loss of government jobs, which made the report look much softer than it
\n actually was. In fact, the unemployment rate painted a different picture,
\n falling further to 4.1%. Overall, the labour market remains on a better
\n trajectory than it has been over the past three years.<\/p>\n

Today, we have the US CPI report. The data will be critical for the
\n September FOMC decision and Fed Chair Warsh\u2019s speech at the Jackson Hole
\n symposium. The focus will be on the Core CPI M\/M measure which is expected at
\n 0.2%. <\/p>\n

A hot report will likely trigger a rally, with traders increasing rate hike
\n bets. A soft or even in-line report, on the other hand, should reduce further the
\n risk of Fed tightening and put further pressure on the greenback.<\/p>\n

JPY:<\/p>\n

On the JPY side, not much
\n has changed after the intervention. The only notable development was US
\n Treasury Secretary Bessent\u2019s remarks to CNBC potentially hinting to a faster
\n BoJ tightening pace. <\/p>\n

In fact, he stated that
\n “it will require policy to follow up on the intervention” and added
\n that the “US would not have joined if it was not optimistic about Japan
\n policies\u201d. Japan\u2019s currency diplomat Mimura stated that he had a shared
\n understanding with the BoJ following the intervention, which might be another
\n hint to faster rate hikes.\u00a0\u00a0 <\/p>\n

Finally, we got a report
\n from Jiji<\/a> yesterday saying that the BoJ may consider a rate hike at its
\n September meeting according to sources. These kinds of reports ahead of BoJ
\n meetings have always resulted in the central bank following suit, so we can
\n expect the BoJ to hike in September to 1.25%. The market pricing is a bit more
\n cautious with just a 58% probability of a rate hike.<\/p>\n

Overall, the trend is
\n unlikely to change without a dovish repricing in Fed interest rate expectations
\n or a faster BoJ tightening pace.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

USDJPY TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see that USDJPY<\/a>has been slowly recovering
\n ground after the intervention, with the first major target being the resistance
\n zone around the 160.50 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the
\n sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a
\n drop back into the 155.00 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for
\n a break to increase the bullish bets into new cycle highs.<\/p>\n

USDJPY TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we have
\n an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we were to get a pullback
\n into it, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk
\n below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will
\n look for a break to pile in for a drop into the 155.00 handle next. <\/p>\n

USDJPY TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, we have
\n a minor support zone around the 158.50 level. If we were to get a pullback, we
\n can expect the buyers to step in around the support with a defined risk below
\n the trendline to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand,
\n will need to wait for a break below the trendline to gain more conviction for a
\n move back into the 155.00 handle. The red lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today. <\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a>, we have the US
\n CPI report. Tomorrow, we get the US PPI data and the latest US Jobless Claims
\n figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales and the
\n University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 USD: The US dollar has recovered most of the losses triggered by the softer than expected NFP reportas the September rate hike probabilities rose back to 50%. The reason…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-436075","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/436075","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=436075"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/436075\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=436075"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=436075"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=436075"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}