{"id":436106,"date":"2026-08-13T01:00:11","date_gmt":"2026-08-12T18:00:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/warning-there-is-a-long-way-to-go-until-the-next-fed-meeting-436106\/"},"modified":"2026-08-13T01:00:11","modified_gmt":"2026-08-12T18:00:11","slug":"warning-there-is-a-long-way-to-go-until-the-next-fed-meeting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/warning-there-is-a-long-way-to-go-until-the-next-fed-meeting-436106\/","title":{"rendered":"WARNING: There is a long way to go until the next Fed Meeting"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p class=\"PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer\">The US CPI data came out earlier but if the Fed and new Fed Chair had a favorite inflation measure it remains the PCE.\u00a0 The important thing to realize is that PCE is not simply CPI translated into another index. The BEA builds PCE using a mix of CPI, PPI, and other source data.<\/p>\n<p>For the monthly core PCE estimate, the biggest pieces traders watch are:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>From CPI: Many consumer-facing services and goods, particularly housing\/rents, medical services, transportation services, recreation, education, and various other consumer services. CPI gives analysts an early read on many PCE components.\n<\/li>\n<li>From PPI: Several components that aren&#8217;t captured well by consumer prices. The most market-sensitive are health-care services\u2014including physician services, hospitals and nursing care\u2014as well as airfares\/air transportation, financial services, insurance and portfolio-management-related prices.\n<\/li>\n<li>Other sources: BEA also uses additional government and industry data, so CPI and PPI don&#8217;t completely determine PCE.\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Why tomorrow&#8217;s PPI matters<\/p>\n<p>After today&#8217;s CPI, economists can make a preliminary core PCE estimate, which is why you&#8217;re seeing estimates around +0.16% to +0.23%.<\/p>\n<p>Tomorrow&#8217;s PPI fills in some important missing pieces\u2014especially health-care and financial-service components. <\/p>\n<p>Nevertheless, there are some estimates that are being shared ahead of the PPI.\u00a0 <\/p>\n<p>Pantheon, is often followed by the market and they quesstimate a rise of +0.16% core PCE estimate. That would lower the annual rate to 3.2% from 3.3%. They state that if so, it would be enough to keep the Fed on hold in September.<\/p>\n<p>Other estimates show:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Oxford Economics: Forecasts headline PCE +0.1% m\/m and core PCE +0.2%, saying the CPI data strengthen the case for a September hold.\n<\/li>\n<li>Goldman Sachs: Sees a somewhat firmer +0.23% m\/m core PCE increase. Methodology changes could add volatility while lowering the annual core inflation rate.\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bottom line: Estimates cluster around a 0.2% monthly core PCE increase, reinforcing expectations that inflation is gradually cooling and giving the Fed room to keep rates unchanged in September.\u00a0 <\/p>\n<p>Of note is that the September meeting decision is on September 16.\u00a0 The PPI data will be released on September 10 while the CPI will be released a day later on September 11. The US jobs report will be released on September 4th.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>So although the prognosticators are saying something in line with the estimates would be &#8220;good enough to keep the Fed on hold in September&#8221;, the fact is it likely won&#8217;t as key data points will still be released before the next meeting.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The current headline and core PCE shows.\u00a0<\/p>\n<li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Headline PCE inflation: 3.7% year-over-year, down from 4.1% in May <a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/united-states\/pce-price-index-monthly-change\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"group\/tag relative h-[18px] rounded-full inline-flex items-center overflow-hidden -translate-y-px cursor-pointer\" rel=\"follow\">TRADING ECONOMICS<\/a><\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Core PCE inflation (excludes food and energy): 3.3% year-over-year in June, down slightly from 3.4% in May<\/li>\n<p>Those numbers are still well above the 2% target.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The market&#8217;s and analysts may be more confident of no rate change in September, but my guess is that it may take until September 11th to really know what may happen.<\/p>\n<p>September th<br \/>\n                            This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The US CPI data came out earlier but if the Fed and new Fed Chair had a favorite inflation measure it remains the PCE.\u00a0 The important thing to realize is that PCE&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-436106","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/436106","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=436106"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/436106\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=436106"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=436106"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=436106"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}