{"id":436118,"date":"2026-08-13T03:32:12","date_gmt":"2026-08-12T20:32:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/the-whatd-i-miss-catch-up-post-trump-claims-hormuz-oil-supported-cpi-in-line-436118\/"},"modified":"2026-08-13T03:32:12","modified_gmt":"2026-08-12T20:32:12","slug":"the-whatd-i-miss-catch-up-post-trump-claims-hormuz-oil-supported-cpi-in-line","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/the-whatd-i-miss-catch-up-post-trump-claims-hormuz-oil-supported-cpi-in-line-436118\/","title":{"rendered":"The &#8220;What&#8217;d I miss catch up post&#8221;. Trump claims Hormuz, oil supported, CPI in line"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">The gap between Washington&#8217;s rhetoric and physical shipping data is the trade to watch. Trump&#8217;s repeated claims of &#8220;total control&#8221; over Hormuz have not been matched by tanker flows, with transit falling to a one-week low even as he floats a permanent US presence there. That divergence keeps a geopolitical risk premium embedded in Brent, now above $89 after a sixth straight day of gains. On the policy side, <a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/news\/us-july-cpi-y-y-vs-3-4-expected\/\" rel=\"follow\">in-line CPI<\/a> has pared back September hike bets, but three FOMC dissents in July and Warsh&#8217;s refusal to offer forward guidance mean the rate path stays genuinely two-sided. Equities are mainly reading the inflation print as a green light, but Thursday&#8217;s PPI print carries more weight than usual given oil&#8217;s recent run.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">&#8212;<br \/>\nMarkets are pricing calm on cooling inflation and record equities even as the Gulf risk premium keeps building underneath a widening gap between US rhetoric and actual shipping data.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">Summary:<\/p>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\" class=\"[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3 print:block print:space-y-1\">\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Brent trades above $89 and WTI near $84, extending a sixth consecutive day of gains and up roughly 12% over five sessions<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Trump reiterated on Truth Social that the US has &#8220;total control&#8221; over the Strait of Hormuz and signalled intent to keep it, describing the naval blockade as a &#8220;wall of steel&#8221;<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Iran&#8217;s Persian Gulf Strait Authority rejected the claim, saying the strait remains blocked; tanker transit fell to a one-week low of roughly eight vessels a day, against a pre-war norm near 130<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">July US CPI matched forecasts at 0.1% monthly and 3.4% annually, with core at 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually, easing near-term pressure for a September Fed hike<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/news\/us-july-cpi-y-y-vs-3-4-expected\/\" rel=\"follow\">S&amp;P 500 closed near record highs, with Nasdaq outperforming too, while the Dow lagged <\/a>behind a diverging transports sector<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">The dollar index held just under 100, broadly steady, after stabilising from last week&#8217;s post-payrolls selloff<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">\nOil extended its rally for a sixth straight session on Wednesday, with Brent crude trading above $89 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate near $84, as traders weighed an escalating war of words over control of the Strait of Hormuz against signs that the underlying flow of tankers through the waterway continues to shrink. President Trump doubled down on claims that the United States holds &#8220;total control&#8221; over the strait, telling reporters the US Navy blockade amounted to a &#8220;wall of steel&#8221; that Iran could do nothing about, and later posting on social media that he intends to keep control of the passage.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">Iran&#8217;s Persian Gulf Strait Authority, the body Tehran established to manage transit through the waterway, rejected the assertion outright, stating the strait remains blocked and will not reopen until its conditions are met. Shipping data lends more weight to Iran&#8217;s position than to the rhetoric coming out of Washington: tanker transits fell to a one-week low of around eight vessels a day, according to tracking data, compared with roughly 130 a day before the conflict began. That widening gap between political messaging and physical flows is likely to keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices regardless of how the diplomatic track between Washington and Tehran proceeds.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">The energy story is unfolding alongside a somewhat calmer picture on the inflation front. July&#8217;s Consumer Price Index came in line with expectations, with headline inflation at 3.4% annually and core inflation at 2.5%, both down a tenth of a point from June. The reading has taken some of the urgency out of bets on a September rate hike, though three Federal Reserve policymakers dissented in favour of tightening at the July meeting, and Chair Kevin Warsh has continued to withhold explicit forward guidance, leaving other governors to shape the market&#8217;s expectations. US equities took the data as a modest green light, with the S&amp;P 500 closing high and the Nasdaq outperforming on continued strength in AI-linked names, even as the Dow Jones lagged and a divergence opened up between industrials and transport stocks. The dollar index, meanwhile, held just below the 100 level, having stabilised after last week&#8217;s selloff triggered by a weak nonfarm payrolls report.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">Together, the two threads point to a market that is pricing near-term calm even as the risk premium in energy continues to build beneath the surface, a tension that traders will need to reconcile as Thursday&#8217;s producer price data and further Hormuz headlines both land in quick succession.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">\n<p>                            This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The gap between Washington&#8217;s rhetoric and physical shipping data is the trade to watch. Trump&#8217;s repeated claims of &#8220;total control&#8221; over Hormuz have not been matched by tanker flows, with transit falling&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-436118","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/436118","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=436118"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/436118\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=436118"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=436118"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=436118"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}