{"id":436291,"date":"2026-08-14T22:00:27","date_gmt":"2026-08-14T15:00:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/us-business-inventories-for-june-0-0-vs-0-1-estimate-436291\/"},"modified":"2026-08-14T22:00:27","modified_gmt":"2026-08-14T15:00:27","slug":"us-business-inventories-for-june-0-0-vs-0-1-estimate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/us-business-inventories-for-june-0-0-vs-0-1-estimate-436291\/","title":{"rendered":"US Business inventories for June 0.0% vs 0.1% estimate"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<ul>\n<li>Prior month 0.3% revised higher to 0.4%<\/li>\n<li>Business inventories for June 0.0% vs 0.1% estimate<\/li>\n<li>Retail inventories ex autos -0.4% vs\u00a0-0.2% last month.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Sales show a sharp fall in June but still up strong for the year.\u00a0<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>June business sales: $2.111 trillion\n<\/li>\n<li>Month-over-month:-1.1% vs. May 2026\n<\/li>\n<li>Year-over-year:+10.0% vs. June 2025\n<\/li>\n<li>\nSales figures are seasonally and trading-day adjusted, but not adjusted for price changes.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The total business inventories\/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of June was 1.30 which is higher from the lowest level going back to 2021.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0The June 2025 ratio was 1.39.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer\">With the inventory-to-sales ratio is at its lowest since 2021, it can create the conditions for an inventory-rebuilding cycle, particularly if sales remain firm.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Inventories are lean relative to sales. Businesses are carrying less inventory for each dollar of sales, meaning there is less of an inventory cushion.\n<\/li>\n<li>Potential production boost: If demand holds up, companies may need to increase orders and production to rebuild inventories. Historically, inventory drawdowns associated with stronger demand can lead to increased output as firms restock.\n<\/li>\n<li>Positive for GDP: Inventory investment is part of GDP. A transition from little or no inventory accumulation to meaningful restocking can therefore add to GDP growth, even before inventories become particularly large. The Fed has documented past periods when a turn from inventory liquidation toward restocking provided a meaningful contribution to growth.\n<\/li>\n<li>Positive for manufacturing and transportation: A broad rebuild could mean more factory production, supplier orders, freight and warehousing activity.\n<\/li>\n<li>But demand is critical. A low ratio by itself doesn&#8217;t guarantee a rebuild. If sales weaken, companies may be perfectly comfortable with existing inventories and won&#8217;t necessarily increase orders.\n<\/li>\n<li>There is also a structural issue: Businesses have become more efficient at running lean inventories through just-in-time systems, so today&#8217;s &#8220;normal&#8221; inventory-to-sales ratio may be lower than historical norms.\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>For the June numbers, there&#8217;s an interesting setup: inventories were essentially flat m\/m while sales were +10.0% y\/y, and the inventory\/sales ratio is 1.30 versus 1.39 a year ago. If sales remain resilient, that increasingly argues for future inventory rebuilding\u2014which could provide an additional tailwind to production and GDP.<\/p>\n<p>The key question over the next few months is whether sales stay strong enough to force businesses to restock.<\/p>\n<p>The Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the<br \/>\nMonthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers\u2019 Shipments,<br \/>\nInventories, and Orders Survey. Data for the wholesale and manufacturing sectors are unrevised from the<br \/>\nmost recent Monthly Wholesale Trade Report and the Full Report on Manufacturers\u2019 Shipments, Inventories<br \/>\nand orders. Data from the Retail sector is revised and presented in more detail from the most recent Advance<br \/>\nEconomic Indicators Report<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prior month 0.3% revised higher to 0.4% Business inventories for June 0.0% vs 0.1% estimate Retail inventories ex autos -0.4% vs\u00a0-0.2% last month. Sales show a sharp fall in June but still&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-436291","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/436291","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=436291"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/436291\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=436291"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=436291"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=436291"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}