{"id":436419,"date":"2026-08-18T08:23:21","date_gmt":"2026-08-18T01:23:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/icymi-etf-flows-return-to-gold-as-saxo-flags-289-tonne-central-bank-demand-436419\/"},"modified":"2026-08-18T08:23:21","modified_gmt":"2026-08-18T01:23:21","slug":"icymi-etf-flows-return-to-gold-as-saxo-flags-289-tonne-central-bank-demand","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/icymi-etf-flows-return-to-gold-as-saxo-flags-289-tonne-central-bank-demand-436419\/","title":{"rendered":"ICYMI: ETF flows return to gold as Saxo flags 289-tonne central bank demand"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">Saxo&#8217;s framing turns the usual gold playbook on its head, arguing that persistently high long-end Treasury yields, normally bullion&#8217;s biggest headwind, may increasingly reflect fiscal and term premium concerns rather than growth or policy tightening, which would weaken the historically negative gold-yield relationship rather than reinforce it. That reframing matters because it is the one genuine outlier in an otherwise supportive setup: fading Fed hike expectations, a rolling-over dollar, returning ETF demand, and steady central bank buying are all pulling in gold&#8217;s favour, leaving bond yields as the sole holdout. The $4,500 level, where the 200-day moving average sits, is flagged as the technical line in the sand, with a sustained break seen encouraging further momentum and ETF demand, while a slip back below $4,200 would point to continued consolidation rather than a fresh bull leg. Saxo&#8217;s own risk case, a renewed inflation or employment surprise reviving both real yields and the dollar together, remains the scenario most likely to unwind the recent rebound.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">&#8212;<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">Earlier:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/commodities\/icymi-wells-fargo-cuts-2026-gold-target-to-4-900-5-100-still-bullish-overall\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"follow\">ICYMI: Wells Fargo cuts 2026 gold target to $4,900-5,100, still bullish overall<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/commodities\/gold-nears-4-500-resistance-as-central-bank-buying-meets-fading-fed-hike-bets\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"follow\">Gold nears $4,500 resistance as central bank buying meets fading Fed hike bets<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">&#8212;<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">\nSaxo thinks gold has quietly turned bond market anxiety into a tailwind instead of a headwind, with everything except yields now pointing the same supportive direction.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">Summary:<\/p>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\" class=\"[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3 print:block print:space-y-1\">\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Saxo Bank&#8217;s Ole Hansen says gold is holding near $4,400 after breaking higher from a consolidation phase that found support just below $4,000<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Fading Fed rate hike expectations, a softening dollar, and returning investment demand are supporting the rebound, while elevated long-end bond yields remain the key headwind<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\"><a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/central-banks\/goldman-calls-september-fed-hike-very-unlikely-as-inflation-eases\/\" rel=\"follow\">Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius called a September hike very unlikely<\/a>, aligning with Saxo&#8217;s own long-held view on Fed tightening<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">The Bloomberg Dollar Index has begun rolling over after earlier strength, reinforcing the usual weaker-dollar, higher-gold relationship<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Long-dated Treasury yields remain near multi-year highs despite softer data, which Saxo attributes partly to fiscal and term risk premium rather than growth or policy expectations, with CBO-projected net federal interest costs exceeding $1 trillion in 2026<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">AI hyperscaler debt issuance is adding further upward pressure on yields by competing with Treasuries for capital<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Global gold ETFs added roughly 23 tonnes and $3 billion in July after two months of outflows, with COMEX speculative net longs at a January high and an 11-month high among hedge funds specifically<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Central bank demand remains strong, with second-quarter purchases estimated at 289 tonnes<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">The $4,500 area, where the 200-day moving average sits, is flagged as the next major technical hurdle, with $4,200 as the level below which the market would signal continued consolidation<\/li>\n<li class=\"font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2\">Key risks include a reversal in Fed rate expectations reviving real yields and the dollar together, and a failure of the current technical breakout given the momentum-driven nature of part of the rally<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">\nGold is holding firm near $4,400 an ounce, according to Saxo Bank, as fading Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, a softening dollar and returning investment demand outweigh elevated bond yields, the market&#8217;s main remaining headwind. Ole Hansen, the bank&#8217;s head of commodity strategy, said the metal has broken higher from a week-long consolidation phase that found support just below $4,000.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">The interest rate backdrop has shifted clearly in gold&#8217;s favour. Softer US employment, inflation and consumer data, including a 0.6% drop in July retail sales, the first decline in nine months, have reduced pressure on the Fed to tighten further. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius recently called a September hike very unlikely, a view Hansen says aligns with Saxo&#8217;s own long-held position that the Fed will struggle to raise rates further from here. The dollar has added a second tailwind, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index beginning to roll over after its earlier strength this year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">Bond yields remain the exception. Long-dated Treasury yields are sitting close to multi-year highs despite the softer data, which Hansen attributes partly to a rising fiscal and term risk premium rather than growth or policy expectations, pointing to Congressional Budget Office projections that net federal interest costs will exceed $1 trillion in 2026. Debt issuance from AI hyperscalers funding infrastructure buildouts is compounding the pressure, competing directly with Treasuries for capital. Hansen argues this dynamic could work in gold&#8217;s favour over time, weakening the metal&#8217;s traditional negative relationship with yields if elevated rates increasingly reflect fiscal concern rather than economic strength.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">Investment demand is recovering alongside the shift in macro drivers. Global gold ETFs added around 23 tonnes and $3 billion in July, the first inflow after two consecutive months of outflows, while COMEX speculative net longs have climbed to a January high, an 11-month high among hedge funds specifically. Central bank buying remains a steady undercurrent, with second-quarter purchases estimated at 289 tonnes, a dynamic Hansen compares to 2022-23, when strong official-sector demand helped prevent the deep correction many expected despite aggressive rate hikes at the time.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" dir=\"ltr\">Hansen flags $4,500, where the 200-day moving average sits, as the next key technical test, with a sustained break above that level likely to draw further momentum and ETF demand. A drop back below $4,200, by contrast, would suggest the market remains in consolidation rather than starting a fresh bull leg. The clearest risk to the outlook is a renewed acceleration in inflation or employment data reviving both real yields and the dollar together, a combination Hansen describes as the most challenging macro backdrop gold could face from here.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Saxo&#8217;s framing turns the usual gold playbook on its head, arguing that persistently high long-end Treasury yields, normally bullion&#8217;s biggest headwind, may increasingly reflect fiscal and term premium concerns rather than growth&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-436419","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/436419","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=436419"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/436419\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=436419"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=436419"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=436419"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}