{"id":436431,"date":"2026-08-18T12:40:07","date_gmt":"2026-08-18T05:40:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/eur-usd-upside-break-may-have-to-wait-436431\/"},"modified":"2026-08-18T12:40:07","modified_gmt":"2026-08-18T05:40:07","slug":"eur-usd-upside-break-may-have-to-wait","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/eur-usd-upside-break-may-have-to-wait-436431\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD upside break may have to wait"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

The dollar came under pressure early yesterday, with EUR\/USD briefly treading water above the 1.1600 mark in European morning trade. But as US-Iran tensions continue to play out, we’re seeing the bond market also react accordingly with yields rising to a fresh cycle high. 10-year yields in the US are now bordering on 4.74% with 30-year yields hitting 5.32% currently. For some context, the latter is now at the highest since 2007.<\/p>\n

That’s giving a lot to think about, with plenty of watchful eyes on the Fed especially ahead of Jackson Hole next week.<\/p>\n

The odds of a September rate hike were trimmed to around ~29% early Monday but are now sitting around ~35% currently.<\/p>\n

The latest development is keeping dollar losses in check and in the case of EUR\/USD, so are key technical levels.<\/p>\n

[EUR\/USD daily chart]<\/p>\n

Buyers had a decent shot at trying for an upside break yesterday but fell short despite a push above the 100-day moving average (red line). The key level was what held back the upside momentum in earlier weeks but now we’re also seeing some added resistance from the 50.0 Fib retracement level of the swing lower from April to June. That sits at around 1.1586.<\/p>\n

As such, buyers need to secure a firm break above both key technical levels to really convince of a stronger push above the 1.1600 mark.<\/p>\n

But amid the backdrop of surging Treasury yields, that will be a bit of a tough one. That unless perhaps we see a trigger from another major currency, that being the Japanese yen.<\/p>\n

USD\/JPY is now starting to track back towards the 160 mark and could see another intervention play again closer to the figure level. A joint intervention push could once again send a stronger message but just be wary that if the US Treasury resorts to EUR\/JPY as the alternative to indirectly influence the market, that’s also going to keep any euro advance more limited against the dollar.<\/p>\n

For now though, it’s a case of close but no cigar for EUR\/USD buyers. We are seeing a test of key levels but not to the breaking point to secure a further upside move just yet.<\/p>\n

\n

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The dollar came under pressure early yesterday, with EUR\/USD briefly treading water above the 1.1600 mark in European morning trade. But as US-Iran tensions continue to play out, we’re seeing the bond…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-436431","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/436431","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=436431"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/436431\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=436431"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=436431"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=436431"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}