{"id":436780,"date":"2026-08-24T16:54:25","date_gmt":"2026-08-24T09:54:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/gold-remains-supported-into-jackson-hole-event-after-us-treasury-ignited-debasement-trades-436780\/"},"modified":"2026-08-24T16:54:25","modified_gmt":"2026-08-24T09:54:25","slug":"gold-remains-supported-into-jackson-hole-event-after-us-treasury-ignited-debasement-trades","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/gold-remains-supported-into-jackson-hole-event-after-us-treasury-ignited-debasement-trades-436780\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold remains supported into Jackson Hole event after US Treasury ignited ‘debasement’ trades"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Gold surged on Wednesday after the US Treasury announced that it will at
\n least double the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for
\n longer-dated Treasury securities, increasing the maximum purchase from $2
\n billion to at least $4 billion per operation.<\/p>\n

US Treasury Secretary Bessent then said that part of the operation was
\n sending a message to the market that yields do not reflect underlying
\n fundamentals and added that the buyback could be more than $4 billion depending
\n on conditions.<\/p>\n

The Treasury intervention in the market had a QE-like effect<\/a> by lowering long-term yields and easing financial conditions, although
\n it\u2019s not technically QE. The US Treasury announcement brought down real yields<\/a> as inflation expectations rose faster than long-term nominal yields due to
\n the Treasury\u2019s intervention. <\/p>\n

In the long-term, long-term yields are driven by monetary policy as they
\n are just the average expected path of short-term interest rates over the life
\n of the bond plus a term premium, but they are more sensitive to changes in
\n economic outlook. <\/p>\n

That\u2019s why the focus will now shift to the Federal Reserve and Warsh’s
\n speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium next week. I was expecting it to be a
\n non-event given Warsh’s preference of not giving forward guidance and the fact
\n that the soft NFP and CPI reports eased Fed tightening concerns. After the
\n Treasury buyback announcement, though, the speech could actually be a
\n market-moving event.<\/p>\n

If Warsh doesn’t lean against the easing in financial conditions, the
\n current “debasement” trades like long precious metals, bitcoin and
\n short US dollar will likely extend further. On the other hand, if he pushes
\n back saying things like “recent easing in financial conditions, if
\n sustained, could complicate the process of returning inflation to our
\n target” or “if recent easing threatens progress toward price
\n stability, we will not hesitate to respond appropriately” and so on, the
\n market may interpret it as a signal for a potentially hawkish September FOMC
\n and trigger pullbacks in the “debasement” trades.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see that gold has broken above the key trendline around the 4,400 level
\n following the US Treasury announcement and extended the gains above the 4,600
\n level. The natural target for the buyers should be the swing high around the
\n 4,890 level. That\u2019s where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined
\n risk above the level to position for a drop into the 3,885 level. The buyers,
\n on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets
\n into the next swing high around the 5,400 level.<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 4
\n HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we have
\n an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we get a pullback into
\n the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it with a defined risk below
\n it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to
\n see the price breaking below the trendline to pile in for a drop into the 3,885
\n level next.<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 1
\n HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, we
\n have another minor trendline defining the momentum on this timeframe. The
\n buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below
\n it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break to
\n pile in for a pullback into the next trendline. The red lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today.<\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a> we have US Treasury Secretary Bessent unveiling the sanctions against
\n Iran. Tomorrow, we get the US Consumer Confidence report. On Wednesday, we have
\n the US PCE price index. On Thursday, we get the US Jobless Claims figures. On
\n Friday, we conclude the week with Fed Chair Warsh\u2019s speech at the Jackson Hole
\n Symposium. <\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 Gold surged on Wednesday after the US Treasury announced that it will at least double the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for longer-dated Treasury securities, increasing the maximum…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-436780","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/436780","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=436780"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/436780\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=436780"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=436780"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=436780"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}