{"id":436867,"date":"2026-08-25T17:05:01","date_gmt":"2026-08-25T10:05:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/sp-500-rallies-on-hopes-of-us-iran-breakthrough-ahead-of-jackson-hole-436867\/"},"modified":"2026-08-25T17:05:01","modified_gmt":"2026-08-25T10:05:01","slug":"sp-500-rallies-on-hopes-of-us-iran-breakthrough-ahead-of-jackson-hole","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/sp-500-rallies-on-hopes-of-us-iran-breakthrough-ahead-of-jackson-hole-436867\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500 rallies on hopes of US-Iran breakthrough ahead of Jackson Hole"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

The S&P 500, and other major stock indices in general, has been under
\n some pressure in the last week, despite no changes on the fundamental side. The
\n extended US-Iran deadlock might be one of the reasons, but it hasn\u2019t weakened
\n economic activity, and oil prices have been broadly stable. It looks more like
\n a pullback from overstretched levels due to lack of bullish catalysts. <\/p>\n

Just an hour ago, we got a bullish catalyst as Pakistan’s
\n Chief of Army, Asim Munir, is reportedly carrying a proposal to Iranian leaders<\/a>
\n aimed at reducing tensions between US and Iran, according to Al Arabiya. The
\n proposal is said to include an offer to halt the economic siege on Iran and
\n gradually lift sanctions under the framework of the Islamabad Memorandum of
\n Understanding, which Pakistan has been promoting as part of its mediation
\n efforts between the two sides.<\/p>\n

The markets reacted positively to the news on expectations of potential
\n de-escalation and eventually a deal. It’s not the first time we get such
\n positive headlines, of course, but the fact that Trump spoke with Munir ahead
\n of his trip is strengthening market’s hope for a better outcome.<\/p>\n

Markets will also focus on Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole
\n Symposium on Friday. After the Treasury buyback announcement, traders will be eager
\n to see whether Warsh leans against the easing in financial conditions.<\/p>\n

If he doesn\u2019t, the S&P 500 will likely get support from further easing
\n in financial conditions and the dovish repricing in near-term interest rate
\n expectations. On the other hand, if he pushes back saying things like
\n “recent easing in financial conditions, if sustained, could complicate the
\n process of returning inflation to our target” or “if recent easing
\n threatens progress toward price stability, we will not hesitate to respond
\n appropriately” and so on, the market may interpret it as a signal for a
\n potentially hawkish September FOMC and weigh on risk sentiment and the stock
\n market.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On
\n the daily chart, <\/a>we can see <\/a>the S&P 500 pulled all the way back to the key support zone around
\n the 7,650 level. The buyers stepped in around the support with a defined risk
\n below it to position for a rally into new record highs. The sellers, on the
\n other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into
\n the lower bound of the channel next.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

S&P 500
\n TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On
\n the 4 hour chart,<\/a> we can see the
\n price broke above the downward trendline that was defining the bearish momentum,
\n potentially signalling a reversal. The buyers piled in on the break with a
\n defined risk below the support to position for a rally into new all-time highs.
\n The sellers, on the other hand, will need to wait for the price to break below
\n the support to open the door for new lows.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

S&P 500 TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, the
\n most recent swing high around the 7,715 level might act as minor resistance. A
\n break above it should give the buyers more conviction for further upside. Overall,
\n it look like the market is bottoming out and the buyers will likely continue to
\n pile in around these levels with a de-escalation between US and Iran, and\/or neutral
\n Warsh speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium increasing the momentum. The red
\n lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today. <\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a> we get the US Consumer Confidence report. Tomorrow, we have the US PCE
\n price index. On Thursday, we get the US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we
\n conclude the week with Fed Chair Warsh\u2019s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 The S&P 500, and other major stock indices in general, has been under some pressure in the last week, despite no changes on the fundamental side. The extended US-Iran…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-436867","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/436867","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=436867"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/436867\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=436867"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=436867"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=436867"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}