{"id":437006,"date":"2026-08-27T15:29:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-27T08:29:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/indian-rupee-erases-most-of-tuesdays-gains-as-oil-prices-rebound-on-lack-of-us-iran-deal-437006\/"},"modified":"2026-08-27T15:29:00","modified_gmt":"2026-08-27T08:29:00","slug":"indian-rupee-erases-most-of-tuesdays-gains-as-oil-prices-rebound-on-lack-of-us-iran-deal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/indian-rupee-erases-most-of-tuesdays-gains-as-oil-prices-rebound-on-lack-of-us-iran-deal-437006\/","title":{"rendered":"Indian Rupee erases most of Tuesday’s gains as oil prices rebound on lack of US-Iran deal"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

USD:<\/p>\n

The US dollar strengthened across the board yesterday after the US PCE
\n data. The reaction was honestly odd because literally nothing has changed. The
\n Core figures were in line with forecasts and the market pricing held steady,
\n with 35% chance of a rate hike in September. Therefore, I would dismiss it as
\n just noise.<\/p>\n

Looking ahead, the key events will be Fed Chair Warsh\u2019s speech at the
\n Jackson Hole Symposium tomorrow, a potential US-Iran deal in the coming days
\n and the US CPI report on September 11. <\/p>\n

After the Treasury buyback announcement and Bessent\u2019s \u201cverbal\u201d intervention
\n to suppress long-term yields, traders will be eager to see whether Fed Chair Warsh
\n leans against the easing in financial conditions.<\/p>\n

If he doesn\u2019t, the US dollar will likely come under renewed pressure from
\n further easing in financial conditions and the dovish repricing in near-term
\n interest rate expectations. On the other hand, if he pushes back saying things
\n like “recent easing in financial conditions, if sustained, could
\n complicate the process of returning inflation to our target” or “if
\n recent easing threatens progress toward price stability, we will not hesitate
\n to respond appropriately” and so on, the market may interpret it as a
\n signal for a potentially hawkish September FOMC and give the greenback a boost.\n <\/p>\n

INR:<\/p>\n

On the INR side, the
\n currency rallied strongly on Tuesday as oil prices sold off following positive
\n developments on the US-Iran side which raised market hopes for a potential
\n peace deal, or at least a return to MoU conditions.<\/p>\n

Yesterday, the INR
\n hasn\u2019t traded due to a bank holiday and today it opened much higher because oil
\n prices erased most of the Tuesday\u2019s losses yesterday. <\/p>\n

Higher oil prices
\n tend to weaken the Indian rupee because India imports most of its oil,
\n increasing demand for US dollars, widening the trade deficit, and putting
\n pressure on the country’s external balances.<\/p>\n

In the short-term,
\n the INR will continue to be driven by oil prices, so it might continue to range
\n until the US and Iran find an agreement and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. <\/p>\n

In the big
\n picture, the Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US dollar,
\n so dip-buyers will continue to look for opportunities around strong technical
\n levels to keep pushing the USD\/INR pair into new highs. <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily
\n chart, we can see that USDINR<\/a>is trading between the key 95.10 support and the 96.10 resistance. Market
\n participants will continue to play the range by buying at support and selling
\n at resistance until we get a breakout on either side.<\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour
\n chart, we can see that after the Wednesday\u2019s bank holiday, the pair opened
\n higher as oil prices erased most of the Tuesday\u2019s losses. If we get a pullback
\n into the minor support zone around the 95.60 level, we can expect the buyers to
\n step in with a defined risk below the support to keep pushing into the
\n resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to pile
\n in for a drop back into the 95.10 support.<\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour
\n chart, there\u2019s not much we can add here as the buyers will have a better risk
\n to reward setup around the 95.60 support to keep pushing into the key
\n resistance, while the sellers will wait for a break below the 95.60 support or
\n a rally into the 96.10 resistance to position for new lows.<\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a> we get the
\n US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with Fed Chair
\n Warsh\u2019s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 USD: The US dollar strengthened across the board yesterday after the US PCE data. The reaction was honestly odd because literally nothing has changed. The Core figures were in…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-437006","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/437006","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=437006"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/437006\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=437006"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=437006"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=437006"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}