{"id":437165,"date":"2026-08-31T08:47:11","date_gmt":"2026-08-31T01:47:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/australian-inventory-data-for-q2-will-be-a-drag-on-gdp-growth-437165\/"},"modified":"2026-08-31T08:47:11","modified_gmt":"2026-08-31T01:47:11","slug":"australian-inventory-data-for-q2-will-be-a-drag-on-gdp-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/australian-inventory-data-for-q2-will-be-a-drag-on-gdp-growth-437165\/","title":{"rendered":"Australian inventory data for Q2 will be a drag on GDP growth"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The inventory figure is the most consequential data point here for GDP-watchers, since a 0.3 percentage point drag from private non-farm inventories is a meaningful subtraction heading into Tuesday&#8217;s national accounts release. Because the drawdown was concentrated in mining inventories, it points to a likely offsetting boost from resources exports in the same GDP report, which could partially cushion the headline growth number even as the inventory component itself detracts. The softer-than-expected private sector credit growth suggests some cooling in borrowing momentum, which is consistent with the more cautious tone the RBA has struck on the economy&#8217;s spending pulse. On profits, the split between a strong mining rebound and a soft non-mining result, particularly the fall in financial and insurance services, points to an economy where sector-level divergence remains wide, and the smaller after-IVA profit gain of 0.9 percent suggests some of the headline profit strength is a valuation effect rather than pure operating improvement. Together, the data leave the market focused squarely on Tuesday&#8217;s GDP print to see how these cross-currents net out.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Australia \u2014 July\/Q2 data:<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Summary:<\/p>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li>Australian private sector credit rose 0.6% month-on-month in July, below the 0.7% forecast and down from 0.8% in June, with annual growth easing to 8.4% from 8.5%.<\/li>\n<li>Q2 company operating profits rose 1.8% quarter-on-quarter, missing the 2.0% forecast but rebounding sharply from a 1.3% contraction in Q1.<\/li>\n<li>Business indicators show private non-farm inventories fell 0.2% in Q2, well short of an expected 0.5% rise, and will subtract 0.3 percentage points from real GDP.<\/li>\n<li>The inventory drawdown was concentrated in mining, which points to likely growth payback in resources exports in the same GDP report.<\/li>\n<li>Mining profits jumped 6.8% quarter-on-quarter, while non-mining profits fell 1%, dragged down by a large decline in financial and insurance services.<\/li>\n<li>After the inventory valuation adjustment, profit growth was more modest at 0.9% quarter-on-quarter.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Key takeaway: Credit growth and company profits both came in below expectations but improved on the prior period, with profits rebounding sharply from Q1&#8217;s contraction. The inventories miss is the more market-relevant number given timing, a negative print against an expected 0.5% gain points to a drag on the GDP release due later this week.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p>                            This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The inventory figure is the most consequential data point here for GDP-watchers, since a 0.3 percentage point drag from private non-farm inventories is a meaningful subtraction heading into Tuesday&#8217;s national accounts release.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-437165","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/437165","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=437165"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/437165\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=437165"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=437165"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=437165"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}