{"id":437479,"date":"2026-09-03T18:25:53","date_gmt":"2026-09-03T11:25:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/oil-prices-trade-at-the-highest-levels-since-june-as-us-iran-war-intensifies-whats-next-437479\/"},"modified":"2026-09-03T18:25:53","modified_gmt":"2026-09-03T11:25:53","slug":"oil-prices-trade-at-the-highest-levels-since-june-as-us-iran-war-intensifies-whats-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/oil-prices-trade-at-the-highest-levels-since-june-as-us-iran-war-intensifies-whats-next-437479\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil prices trade at the highest levels since June as US-Iran war intensifies. What’s next?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

The recent rally in oil prices has been driven by a sharp
\n re-escalation in the Middle East, involving once again the Strait of Hormuz. The
\n US carried out new strikes against Iranian targets after alleged attacks on
\n commercial shipping and US personnel, while Iran has threatened to disrupt Gulf
\n oil exports and has taken a more aggressive posture in Hormuz. <\/p>\n

The move higher was about the increase in risk premium,
\n specifically about the perceived time extension of the conflict. As you recall,
\n at the beginning of August, it looked like things were finally starting to ease
\n and military actions were set aside. This week, the expectations changed as a renewed
\n escalation increased concern of an even longer war. <\/p>\n

What I’m looking at now is if this is just another
\n temporary flare-up or a prolonged war. Trump mentioned that the recent \u200bmilitary
\n campaign against Iran \u200cwould not continue for “too long”, so I would
\n wait for signs of de-escalation to start fading this week\u2019s rally. The downside
\n will still remain limited and crude oil will likely trade in a wide range above
\n the $80 level, but in the short-term, a de-escalation could still trigger a
\n nice pullback into the 87.00 support for example. <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

CRUDE OIL
\n TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see that crude oil is approaching July\u2019s high around the 93.50 level. This is where
\n we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level to
\n position for a drop back into the 87.00 support. The buyers, on the other hand,
\n will look for a break to increase the bullish bets into the 97.00 handle next.<\/p>\n

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we
\n have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we get a pullback,
\n the buyers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to
\n keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a
\n break to pile in for a drop into the 87.00 support next.<\/p>\n

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, there\u2019s
\n not much we can add here as from a risk management perspective, the buyers will
\n have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline, while the sellers will
\n start piling in around these levels and increase the bearish bets on a break
\n below the trendline. The red lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today. <\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a>we have Fed\u2019s Waller speaking, the
\n US Jobless Claims data and the US ISM Services PMI. Tomorrow, we conclude the
\n week with the US NFP report. The focus will remain mainly on US-Iran
\n developments though. <\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 The recent rally in oil prices has been driven by a sharp re-escalation in the Middle East, involving once again the Strait of Hormuz. The US carried out new…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-437479","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/437479","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=437479"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/437479\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=437479"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=437479"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=437479"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}