{"id":437516,"date":"2026-09-04T14:06:52","date_gmt":"2026-09-04T07:06:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/usd-jpy-bounces-near-the-major-155-00-support-pullback-or-the-start-of-a-rally-into-new-highs-437516\/"},"modified":"2026-09-04T14:06:52","modified_gmt":"2026-09-04T07:06:52","slug":"usd-jpy-bounces-near-the-major-155-00-support-pullback-or-the-start-of-a-rally-into-new-highs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/usd-jpy-bounces-near-the-major-155-00-support-pullback-or-the-start-of-a-rally-into-new-highs-437516\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY bounces near the major 155.00 support; pullback or the start of a rally into new highs?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

USD:<\/p>\n

The US dollar weakened
\n across the board yesterday following surprisingly dovish
\n comments from Fed Governor Waller<\/a>. While he adopted a more hawkish stance
\n at the beginning of the summer, yesterday he sounded less inclined to raise
\n rates.<\/p>\n

He said that he has finally
\n been seeing signs of disinflation and added that he would not want to raise
\n rates into a disinflationary environment. He said he would be willing to wait
\n another month to \u201cgive disinflation a chance\u201d. He also mentioned that the
\n September rate decision will depend on the upcoming CPI report. If the data
\n comes in hot, he would consider a rate hike.<\/p>\n

Rate hike probabilities for
\n the September meeting dropped significantly, with the market now pricing in just
\n a 48% chance of a hike. Following Waller\u2019s comments, I think only a hot CPI
\n report would be enough to push the Fed to hike at the upcoming meeting.<\/p>\n

Today, we get the US NFP
\n report but given the Fed\u2019s focus on inflation, we will likely need significant
\n upside or downside deviations to see some decent market reaction. In the first
\n case, I would expect the market to go back to pre-Waller levels. In the second
\n case, we should see the market extending yesterday\u2019s moves. <\/p>\n

JPY:<\/p>\n

On the JPY side, the
\n currency reportedly strengthened on the back of a hawkish repricing following
\n BoJ Takata\u2019s comments. I don\u2019t think that was the culprit though given that
\n Takata has been the most hawkish member and there\u2019s been minimal repricing in
\n interest rate expectations. <\/p>\n

More likely, we\u2019ve seen
\n some profit-taking ahead of the key resistance around the 160.50 level on
\n USD\/JPY or stealth interventions. In fact, some quick moves happened without any
\n catalyst. \u00a0<\/p>\n

BoJ Governor Ueda has also commented on monetary policy<\/a>recently but didn\u2019t offer
\n anything new. In my opinion, his comments were actually a bit less hawkish. <\/p>\n

Now, the September rate
\n hike is already priced in, so that won\u2019t move the market. Traders will be
\n focused on forward guidance and signals of potential faster pace. The uptrend
\n in USD\/JPY is unlikely to change without a dovish repricing in Fed interest
\n rate expectations or a faster BoJ tightening pace.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

USDJPY TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see that USDJPY<\/a>dropped all the way back to
\n the key 155.00 support zone. The price bounced as dip-buyers stepped in with a
\n defined risk below the support to position for a rally back into the 160.50
\n resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
\n lower to increase the bearish bets into the 152.50 support next. <\/p>\n

USDJPY TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we can
\n see that the bearish momentum increased substantially after the break of the
\n upward trendline, with the price eventually dropping all the way back to the
\n 155.00 support. There\u2019s not much we can glean from this timeframe, so we need
\n to zoom in to see some more details.<\/p>\n

USDJPY TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, we
\n have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. We can expect the
\n sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to target a break
\n below the support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
\n breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 160.50 resistance. The
\n red lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today. <\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a>, we conclude
\n the week with the US NFP report.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 USD: The US dollar weakened across the board yesterday following surprisingly dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller. While he adopted a more hawkish stance at the beginning of the…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-437516","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/437516","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=437516"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/437516\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=437516"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=437516"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=437516"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}