{"id":437544,"date":"2026-09-04T20:00:07","date_gmt":"2026-09-04T13:00:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/locked-and-loaded-for-the-august-edition-of-non-farm-payrolls-437544\/"},"modified":"2026-09-04T20:00:07","modified_gmt":"2026-09-04T13:00:07","slug":"locked-and-loaded-for-the-august-edition-of-non-farm-payrolls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/locked-and-loaded-for-the-august-edition-of-non-farm-payrolls-437544\/","title":{"rendered":"Locked and loaded for the August edition of non-farm payrolls"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

It’s the final countdown to jobs Friday with both the US and Canadian numbers due up at the bottom of the hour.\u00a0<\/p>\n

USD\/JPY remains in focus as it’s now more than 100 pips from yesterday’s low and we had some more turbulence in Asia. I would imagine macro traders avoid that pair in the aftermath of the report.<\/p>\n

Otherwise, the lay of the land is fairly flat with the euro down 2 pips on the day to 1.1622 and much of the same elsewhere in FX.<\/p>\n

That’s not the case in fixed income with 2-year yields up 2 bps to 4.35% and trading at the highs of the day. Waller yesterday dismissed the jobs report in his thinking — barring a big surprise — and that will loom large but it’s still non-farm payrolls and there are inflationary indications in the wage part of the report.<\/p>\n

I have a non-farm payrolls preview here<\/a> and that dives into the numbers and the seasonal bias in the August data. I tend to think the market will swing towards the Fed holding if we get a number arond +10K or less, though there are many moving parts with revisions.\u00a0 That could create some political dynamics as the following meeting would be close to mid-terms.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Finally, the 61.4% labor force participation number is a problem in the US economy and it will get more attention if it deteriorates further. That’s a longer-term issue though and it’s not a market mover.\u00a0<\/p>\n

As for Canada, the BOC held rates this week but a hike is fully priced in (and a tad more) by year end. The employment numbers lately have been good and the latest blow-up in USMCA shouldn’t hit until September. I tend to think there’s some over-achievement in the Canadian data lately but the July reading of +75.1K provides huge latitude for a miss in today’s report without an economic re-think, it could certainly weigh on the loonie though.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It’s the final countdown to jobs Friday with both the US and Canadian numbers due up at the bottom of the hour.\u00a0 USD\/JPY remains in focus as it’s now more than 100…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-437544","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/437544","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=437544"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/437544\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=437544"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=437544"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=437544"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}