{"id":437604,"date":"2026-09-07T14:39:10","date_gmt":"2026-09-07T07:39:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/indian-rupee-detaches-from-reality-after-multiple-rbi-interventions-iran-war-and-us-cpi-in-focus-437604\/"},"modified":"2026-09-07T14:39:10","modified_gmt":"2026-09-07T07:39:10","slug":"indian-rupee-detaches-from-reality-after-multiple-rbi-interventions-iran-war-and-us-cpi-in-focus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/indian-rupee-detaches-from-reality-after-multiple-rbi-interventions-iran-war-and-us-cpi-in-focus-437604\/","title":{"rendered":"Indian Rupee detaches from reality after multiple RBI interventions; Iran war and US CPI in focus"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

USD:<\/p>\n

The US dollar spiked
\n to the upside on Friday after the US
\n NFP report<\/a> showed job growth in August almost tripling the consensus
\n estimate of 56K. The dollar gains didn\u2019t last long, though, as most of the
\n NFP-driven moves got faded thereafter. <\/p>\n

This happened
\n because the market focus was not on the NFP report, but on the CPI. The market pays
\n attention to the data that the central bank is focused on, and the Federal
\n Reserve is currently focused on inflation. <\/p>\n

In fact, just a
\n day before the NFP report, Fed\u2019s Waller mentioned that he would support keeping
\n interest rates unchanged at the upcoming FOMC meeting, but a hot CPI would make
\n him consider a rate hike. <\/p>\n

This week is all about the US CPI data. Unless,
\n we get some surprising breakthrough in US-Iran relations, the price action will
\n likely remain mostly rangebound or a bit positive for the greenback as traders
\n hedge into the main event. <\/p>\n

INR:<\/p>\n

On the INR side, the
\n currency has been completely detached from reality in the past week, as it
\n rallied despite another increase in oil prices and a relatively stable US
\n dollar. This might have been the result of a series of RBI\u2019s interventions, as
\n we saw three strong spikes without any positive catalyst for the rupee. <\/p>\n

According
\n to Reuters<\/a>, bankers said the central bank had been increasingly active
\n before the formal market opening, followed by interventions throughout the
\n trading days.Previously, the RBI largely stepped in to curb
\n weakness in the \u200brupee, and more recently it appears to be using its
\n intervention to push the currency higher.<\/p>\n

Therefore, we will
\n likely see dip-buyers in the USD\/INR pair stepping in soon, as intervention
\n gains get usually faded without a change in fundamentals, although a negative
\n US CPI on Friday could weaken the US dollar across the board.<\/p>\n

In the short-term,
\n the INR will continue to be driven by oil prices and the hawkish\/dovish
\n repricing in Fed interest rate expectations. Therefore, the pair might keep
\n trading in the wide range for longer until the US and Iran find an agreement
\n and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. <\/p>\n

In the big
\n picture, the Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US dollar,
\n so dip-buyers will continue to look for opportunities around strong major technical
\n levels to keep pushing the USD\/INR pair into new highs. <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily
\n chart, we can see that USDINR<\/a>dropped all the way back to June lows on a series of RBI
\n interventions. If we get another push lower, the buyers will likely step in
\n around the key 94.00 handle with a defined risk below it to position for a
\n rally into new record highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see
\n the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 92.65 level
\n next.<\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour
\n chart, we can see the price is breaking above the downward trendline that was
\n defining the bearish momentum. We can expect the buyers to pile in around these
\n levels with a defined risk below the recent low to target a pullback into the
\n major downward trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
\n price falling back below the trendline to extend the drop into the 94.00
\n handle.<\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour
\n chart, there\u2019s not much we can add here, but there\u2019s a minor resistance around
\n the 94.80 level. That\u2019s where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined
\n risk above the resistance to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will
\n look for a break to increase the bullish bets into the major downward trendline
\n around the 95.40 level.<\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

On Thursday<\/a>, we get the
\n US PPI report and the US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the
\n week with the US CPI report.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 USD: The US dollar spiked to the upside on Friday after the US NFP report showed job growth in August almost tripling the consensus estimate of 56K. The dollar…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-437604","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/437604","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=437604"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/437604\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=437604"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=437604"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=437604"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}