{"id":437755,"date":"2026-09-09T11:52:25","date_gmt":"2026-09-09T04:52:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/oil-prices-close-in-on-100-as-us-iran-tensions-persist-but-the-real-risk-comes-after-it-gets-there-437755\/"},"modified":"2026-09-09T11:52:25","modified_gmt":"2026-09-09T04:52:25","slug":"oil-prices-close-in-on-100-as-us-iran-tensions-persist-but-the-real-risk-comes-after-it-gets-there","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/oil-prices-close-in-on-100-as-us-iran-tensions-persist-but-the-real-risk-comes-after-it-gets-there-437755\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil prices close in on $100 as US-Iran tensions persist, but the real risk comes after it gets there"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

As we continue to move along through the week, oil prices are knocking on the door of $100 again.<\/p>\n

This morning, Brent crude is already printing above $99 and is within touching distance of the psychological threshold. That as US-Iran tensions continue to intensify. Meanwhile, WTI crude is trading above $94 – its highest level since June.<\/p>\n

During the course of this war, it is not to say that we haven’t been here before. But this time, the concern is that it will be harder\u00a0to dismiss the rise in oil prices as merely being a geopolitical risk premium.<\/p>\n

The technical picture<\/p>\n

Oil prices slumped back in June towards $70 when the US and Iran were slated to strike a deal and then move forward with nuclear discussions. However, it didn’t take long for that to fall apart and that led to a resurgence in prices back in July.<\/p>\n

There was much uncertainty between then and August, leading to choppier price action. That as traders were not sure of whether the US and Iran will return to the negotiating table. But as Trump looks to turn this into an economic battle now, it just means that the conflict – and more importantly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – will be prolonged.<\/p>\n

And that has led to a further rise in prices in the last two weeks especially.<\/p>\n

\n

In the case of WTI crude, the technical consideration definitely makes a case that there is room to run between here to $100 next.<\/p>\n

The July high of $93.50 was a notable resistance point but moving past that, there isn’t much stopping buyers in their tracks. The June high at $97.00 may be a consideration but I wouldn’t pin too much importance on that at this stage.<\/p>\n

The only real impediment for buyers is potential headline risks that may come about. Given that, traders are not being all too pushy and not rushing in head first like they did back in March.<\/p>\n

But with each passing day, the danger of the conflict continuing to\u00a0affect a broader share of global oil supply becomes ever more real – more so than it already has.<\/p>\n

$100 oil itself isn’t the number that markets should fear<\/p>\n

As seen during the March to May run up in oil, markets can\u00a0absorb short-lived shocks to prices.<\/p>\n

The much more uncomfortable scenario is one where oil gets above $100, and stays there. The main worry is how that will eventually translate into higher inflation pressures down the road and turn into a bigger market story.<\/p>\n

I’ve talked about it here earlier this week:\u00a0$100 oil is coming back into the picture, and central banks may have a problem<\/a><\/p>\n

So while the next big headline will be when Brent or WTI crude breaks $100, the more important question is what comes afterwards. And therein lies the real risk for markets.<\/p>\n

It isn’t simply how high oil goes. It’s how long it stays there.<\/p>\n

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This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As we continue to move along through the week, oil prices are knocking on the door of $100 again. This morning, Brent crude is already printing above $99 and is within touching…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-437755","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/437755","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=437755"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/437755\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=437755"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=437755"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=437755"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}