{"id":437819,"date":"2026-09-10T05:40:06","date_gmt":"2026-09-09T22:40:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/hsbc-warns-oil-market-is-now-tighter-for-longer-raises-brent-forecast-even-higher-437819\/"},"modified":"2026-09-10T05:40:06","modified_gmt":"2026-09-09T22:40:06","slug":"hsbc-warns-oil-market-is-now-tighter-for-longer-raises-brent-forecast-even-higher","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/hsbc-warns-oil-market-is-now-tighter-for-longer-raises-brent-forecast-even-higher-437819\/","title":{"rendered":"HSBC warns oil market is now &#8220;tighter for longer&#8221;, raises Brent forecast even higher"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">HSBC&#8217;s upgrade reinforces a broader analyst consensus that supply risk remains skewed to the upside while the Strait of Hormuz stays only partially open. With transit volumes still running at roughly 30 percent of pre conflict levels, traders are likely to keep pricing in a persistent risk premium rather than a quick return to normal flows. The bank&#8217;s own scenario split, a possible run toward $120 a barrel if diplomacy fails against a slide into the $70s if a ceasefire holds, gives the market a wide band to trade around headlines. Growing reliance on Saudi and UAE bypass pipelines also softens the read through of any single Hormuz incident, since total Gulf export capacity is less concentrated on the strait than before the conflict. Refining margins are highlighted as a parallel pressure point, with tight product markets adding a second, less visible source of price support.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">&#8212;<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Even the warmonger himself sees higher prices:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial\">\n<li style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0\"><a class=\"article-link\" href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/commodities\/trump-says-oil-prices-won-t-come-down-until-after-the-midterms-3\/\" target=\"_self\" style=\"box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 0; color: rgba(140, 77, 223, 1); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none; transition: 0.3s\" rel=\"follow\">Trump says oil prices won&#8217;t come down until after the midterms<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">&#8212;<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">HSBC now sees a structurally tighter oil market persisting well into 2027, even as bypass pipelines start to take some pressure off the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Summary:<\/p>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li>HSBC raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $90 a barrel from $80, and its 2027 forecast to $85 from $65, with a longer term assumption of $75 from 2028<\/li>\n<li>The bank says Hormuz flows have settled near 30 percent of pre conflict levels since the US-Iran memorandum of understanding collapsed in July<\/li>\n<li>Base case assumes a fragile US-Iran understanding that remains prone to breakdowns, with Hormuz liquids flows rising from around 6 million barrels a day currently to 8 million by year end and 9.5 million by mid 2027, still far below the 19 to 20 million barrels a day seen before the conflict<\/li>\n<li>Bypass flows through Saudi and UAE pipelines are expected to rise from just over 4 million barrels a day to 6.8 million by mid 2027, lifting total Gulf export volumes to around 16.5 million barrels a day<\/li>\n<li>HSBC does not expect the market to rebalance until around mid 2027, implying further inventory drawdowns in the meantime, and it has also raised its refining margin assumptions through 2028<\/li>\n<li>Two alternative scenarios were outlined: a stalemate case where Brent could climb to around $120 if diplomacy fails, and a recovery case where a durable ceasefire could push Brent down to the $70s by the first quarter of 2028<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\nHSBC has raised its Brent crude price forecasts, lifting its 2026 outlook to $90 a barrel from $80 previously and its 2027 forecast to $85 from $65, according to an oil market note from the bank&#8217;s analysts, including senior global oil and gas analyst Kim Fustier. The bank also pushed its longer term price assumption up to $75 a barrel from 2028 onward.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The upgrade reflects what HSBC describes as a disrupted new normal in the Strait of Hormuz, the critical shipping channel at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. Since a US-Iran memorandum of understanding broke down in July, the analysts say transit through the strait has settled at around 30 percent of pre conflict levels, albeit with significant day to day swings. Rather than a full closure or a full reopening, HSBC characterises the current state as persistently impaired, and its new base case assumes a fragile understanding between Washington and Tehran that remains vulnerable to repeated breakdowns and continued uncertainty over security, control and insurance.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Under that base case, the bank expects liquids flows through Hormuz to recover only gradually, rising from around 6 million barrels a day currently to 8 million by the end of this year and 9.5 million by the middle of 2027. Even at that level, HSBC notes, flows would remain far below the 19 to 20 million barrels a day that moved through the strait before the conflict, leaving the oil market tighter for longer than the bank had previously assumed.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Bypass infrastructure is playing an increasingly important role in offsetting that shortfall. HSBC points to existing and under construction pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as a route for total Gulf exports to recover even if strait volumes remain structurally lower. In the bank&#8217;s base case, bypass flows rise from just over 4 million barrels a day currently to 6.8 million by mid 2027, taking total Gulf export volumes to roughly 16.5 million barrels a day. Even so, HSBC does not expect the market to return to balance until around mid 2027, implying continued inventory drawdowns over the coming quarters. The bank also flagged constrained product exports from the Gulf, depleted inventories, elevated freight and insurance costs, disruptions tied to Russia, and limited spare refining capacity as factors supporting unusually strong refining margins, prompting it to raise its refining margin assumptions for 2026 through 2028.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Beyond its base case, HSBC laid out two alternative paths. In a stalemate scenario, if diplomacy fails and Hormuz flows stay near current levels, the bank sees inventories drawing toward operational lows and Brent rising to around $120 a barrel, before easing in the third quarter of 2027 as demand destruction and faster non OPEC supply help restore balance. In a recovery scenario, a durable ceasefire reached in the fourth quarter of this year could push total Gulf exports back toward pre conflict levels, allowing the market to rebalance by year end and shift into a surplus of more than 3 million barrels a day in 2027, with Brent potentially falling to the $70s by the first quarter of 2028. The spread between those two outcomes underscores how much of the current price structure still hinges on the trajectory of the US-Iran standoff.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p>                            This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>HSBC&#8217;s upgrade reinforces a broader analyst consensus that supply risk remains skewed to the upside while the Strait of Hormuz stays only partially open. With transit volumes still running at roughly 30&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-437819","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/437819","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=437819"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/437819\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=437819"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=437819"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=437819"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}