{"id":437943,"date":"2026-09-11T16:43:30","date_gmt":"2026-09-11T09:43:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/gold-falls-back-into-the-major-4300-support-ahead-of-us-cpi-as-surging-oil-prices-increase-rate-hike-bets-437943\/"},"modified":"2026-09-11T16:43:30","modified_gmt":"2026-09-11T09:43:30","slug":"gold-falls-back-into-the-major-4300-support-ahead-of-us-cpi-as-surging-oil-prices-increase-rate-hike-bets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/gold-falls-back-into-the-major-4300-support-ahead-of-us-cpi-as-surging-oil-prices-increase-rate-hike-bets-437943\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold falls back into the major $4300 support ahead of US CPI, as surging oil prices increase rate hike bets"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

The price action
\n in gold has been mostly negative after the strong US NFP report triggered a
\n hawkish repricing, but the surge in oil prices increased the momentum.\u00a0The escalation in
\n attacks between US and Iran, and Yemen\u2019s Houthis attacks on Saudi energy
\n facilities, provided a tailwind for oil prices to push into new highs.<\/p>\n

The momentum increased
\n as traders started to price in a prolonged conflict after\u00a0Trump said\u00a0that he expects the war with Iran to
\n end immediately after the US midterm elections in November<\/a>, effectively acknowledging that the war is likely to
\n continue through at least the election period.<\/p>\n

Yesterday, WTI crude oil broke through the psychologically
\n important $100 level<\/a>
\n and triggered a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations across the
\n board. <\/p>\n

Today, the focus will be on the Core CPI M\/M measure,
\n as that’s what the Fed members have been focusing on. Fed’s Waller recently
\n said that he would consider a rate hike in September if the monthly core
\n reading surprised to the upside. Unfortunately, that was before the latest
\n surge in oil prices.<\/p>\n

Traders are now pricing in a 67% chance of a rate hike
\n at the upcoming meeting. I feel like an in-line CPI won’t be enough to steer
\n the market away from expecting a rate hike. If we go into the FOMC meeting with
\n higher probabilities for a rate hike, then the Fed will be forced to hike just
\n to avoid delivering a dovish surprise.<\/p>\n

I think only a soft Core CPI could support gold in the
\n short-term, while an upside surprise will likely exacerbate the risk-off
\n sentiment and trigger a selloff, as the market could start pricing an even more
\n aggressive path for rate hikes.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see gold is trading at the 4,311 support. We can expect the buyers to step in here
\n with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into the 4,890
\n level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
\n lower to pile in for a drop into the 3,885 level next.<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 4
\n HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we
\n have a downward trendline defining the recent bearish structure. If we get a
\n pullback into the trendline, we can expect the sellers to lean on it with a
\n defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other
\n hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 4,890
\n level next.<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 1
\n HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, there\u2019s
\n not much we can add as it\u2019s now just about waiting for the US CPI release. Entering
\n now would be very dangerous as the spikes might be big. A soft CPI will likely
\n trigger a pullback into the trendline and might even take gold into higher
\n prices. A hot CPI, on the other hand, will highly likely trigger a big selloff.<\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a>, all eyes
\n will be on the US CPI report. <\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 The price action in gold has been mostly negative after the strong US NFP report triggered a hawkish repricing, but the surge in oil prices increased the momentum.\u00a0The escalation…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-437943","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/437943","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=437943"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/437943\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=437943"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=437943"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=437943"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}