{"id":438019,"date":"2026-09-14T15:16:11","date_gmt":"2026-09-14T08:16:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/gold-tests-the-major-4300-support-again-as-rate-hike-bets-and-rising-oil-threaten-a-breakdown-438019\/"},"modified":"2026-09-14T15:16:11","modified_gmt":"2026-09-14T08:16:11","slug":"gold-tests-the-major-4300-support-again-as-rate-hike-bets-and-rising-oil-threaten-a-breakdown","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/gold-tests-the-major-4300-support-again-as-rate-hike-bets-and-rising-oil-threaten-a-breakdown-438019\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold tests the major $4,300 support again, as rate hike bets and rising oil threaten a breakdown"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Gold rallied on
\n Friday despite a higher-than-expected monthly core inflation reading. It was a strange
\n reaction, as the data boosted expectations for a Fed rate hike, with traders
\n now pricing in an 87% chance of an increase on Wednesday.<\/p>\n

Moreover, the
\n hawkish repricing triggered by surging oil prices pushed real yields higher,
\n which is generally negative for gold. Nonetheless, the precious metal has
\n remained relatively resilient above the major $4,300 support zone.<\/p>\n

Looking ahead, the
\n focus will be on Wednesday’s FOMC decision, with the Fed expected to hike rates
\n by 25 bps. This would be the first hike since 2023. Traders will be attentive
\n to any hawkish surprises, as these could send gold lower on further tightening
\n of financial conditions.<\/p>\n

The other major
\n focus will be developments in the Middle East, as oil prices continue to rise
\n and fuel inflation concerns amid worsening disruptions and supply fears. Oil
\n prices have been the key driver of markets recently, so any de-escalation in
\n the Middle East could push oil prices lower and lead to a repricing of
\n aggressive rate hike expectations, which would support gold.<\/p>\n

For now, I think
\n the fundamentals point to further downside for gold as we would need a
\n de-escalation in the Middle East or a dovish Fed to change the picture. <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see gold is trading again at the 4,311 support. We can expect the buyers to
\n step in here with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into
\n the 4,890 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
\n breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the 3,885 level next.<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 4
\n HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we
\n have a downward trendline defining the bearish structure. If we get a pullback
\n into the trendline, we can expect the sellers to lean on it with a defined risk
\n above it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will
\n look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 4,890 level next.<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 1
\n HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, there\u2019s
\n not much we can add as the buyers will want to pile in around the support to
\n target new highs, while the sellers will want to see the price breaking lower
\n to gain more conviction for more downside. The red lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today. <\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

On Wednesday<\/a>, we have the
\n FOMC rate decision. On Thursday, we get the US Jobless Claims figures. Traders
\n will also keep a close eye on developments in the Middle East.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 Gold rallied on Friday despite a higher-than-expected monthly core inflation reading. It was a strange reaction, as the data boosted expectations for a Fed rate hike, with traders now…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-438019","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438019","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=438019"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438019\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=438019"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=438019"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=438019"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}