{"id":438037,"date":"2026-09-14T21:00:08","date_gmt":"2026-09-14T14:00:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/crude-oil-analysis-technicals-and-the-fundamentals-are-in-synch-move-higher-nears-105-438037\/"},"modified":"2026-09-14T21:00:08","modified_gmt":"2026-09-14T14:00:08","slug":"crude-oil-analysis-technicals-and-the-fundamentals-are-in-synch-move-higher-nears-105","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/crude-oil-analysis-technicals-and-the-fundamentals-are-in-synch-move-higher-nears-105-438037\/","title":{"rendered":"Crude oil Analysis: Technicals and the fundamentals are in synch.  Move higher nears $105"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p class=\"PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer\">Middle East tensions remain fundamentally bullish for oil.<\/p>\n<p>Saudi Arabia\u2019s East-West pipeline could remain largely out of service for three to five weeks following last week\u2019s drone attack. The pipeline has become increasingly important because it allows Saudi Arabia to bypass the partially disrupted Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the Iran-backed Houthis continue to expand their control along Yemen\u2019s Red Sea coast, increasing the threat to shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Talks aimed at easing restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz have also been postponed.<\/p>\n<p>The combination of reduced Saudi export flexibility, threats to two critical shipping routes and the risk of a broader military response should keep a geopolitical risk premium in oil prices.<\/p>\n<p>Fundamental picture is bullish. So is the technical picture<\/p>\n<p>Technically, crude oil corrected lower on Friday after surging from its August 26 low near $80.00 to a high of $104.21. After a move of more than $24 in a relatively short period, the market may have simply been due for a pause as traders took profits.<\/p>\n<p>The correction on Friday, moved below the 61.8% retracement at $99.70, but buyers stepped back in around the natural support at $100.00. That makes the area between $99.70 and $100.00 the closest risk-defining zone for buyers looking for more upside.<\/p>\n<p>Stay above that area and the buyers remain in firm control. Move below it, and traders would look toward the rising 100-hour moving average, currently near $98.27, as the next important support target. That moving average will continue to move higher. Until then, the buyers are in full control.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>On the topside, the sky is the limit &#8211; especially if fundamentals continue to deteriorate (no one knows so take it as it is).\u00a0 The next key target is the May 18 swing high at $105.21. Today\u2019s high has reached $104.95, putting the price within striking distance of that level. Crude is currently trading at $104.02 as of 9:21 AM ET.<\/p>\n<p>What are some targets?\u00a0 A sustained move above $105.21 would strengthen the bullish technical picture and open the door toward:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>$107.46 \u2014 May 4 swing high\n<\/li>\n<li>$110.93 \u2014 April 30 swing high\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The fundamental backdrop remains supportive, while the technical bias remains bullish. However, buyers must continue to defend the $99.70\u2013$100.00 area. Stay above and the buyers remain in control. Break below, and the rising 100-hour moving average becomes the next key test.<\/p>\n<p>In the video above, I take a closer look at the technical picture for crude oil and outline the key levels that will determine whether buyers can maintain control\u2014or whether the recent run higher is due for a deeper correction.<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Middle East tensions remain fundamentally bullish for oil. Saudi Arabia\u2019s East-West pipeline could remain largely out of service for three to five weeks following last week\u2019s drone attack. The pipeline has become&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-438037","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438037","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=438037"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438037\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=438037"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=438037"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=438037"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}