{"id":438116,"date":"2026-09-15T17:56:52","date_gmt":"2026-09-15T10:56:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/usd-inr-erases-all-rbi-intervention-gains-as-surging-oil-prices-weigh-on-the-indian-rupee-438116\/"},"modified":"2026-09-15T17:56:52","modified_gmt":"2026-09-15T10:56:52","slug":"usd-inr-erases-all-rbi-intervention-gains-as-surging-oil-prices-weigh-on-the-indian-rupee","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/usd-inr-erases-all-rbi-intervention-gains-as-surging-oil-prices-weigh-on-the-indian-rupee-438116\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/INR erases all RBI intervention gains as surging oil prices weigh on the Indian Rupee"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

USD:<\/p>\n

The US dollar
\n weakened on Friday despite a higher than expected monthly core inflation<\/a> reading. It was a strange reaction, as the data
\n boosted expectations for a Fed rate hike, with traders now pricing in a 93%
\n chance of an increase tomorrow. <\/p>\n

Moreover, surging
\n oil prices continue to add inflationary pressure and, given no end in sight, it
\n could make the Fed even more hawkish going forward. The odd reaction was
\n eventually faded, and the greenback rose to a new weekly high.<\/p>\n

Looking ahead, the
\n focus will be on the FOMC decision tomorrow, with the Fed expected to hike
\n rates by 25 bps. This would be the first hike since 2023. Traders will be
\n attentive to any hawkish surprises, as these could give the US dollar a strong
\n boost on a more hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations. <\/p>\n

The other major
\n focus will be the developments in the Middle East, as oil prices continue to
\n rise and fuel inflation concerns amid worsening disruptions and supply fears.
\n Oil prices have been the key driver of markets recently, so any de-escalation
\n in the Middle East could push oil prices lower and lead to a dovish repricing,
\n which could weigh on the greenback.<\/p>\n

For now, I think
\n the fundamentals are more positive for the dollar and we would likely need a
\n de-escalation in the Middle East or a dovish Fed to change the picture. <\/p>\n

INR:<\/p>\n

On the INR side, the
\n currency decoupled from oil prices recently after a series of RBI interventions
\n pushed the rupee higher. Those gains were eventually erased as interventions
\n never work without a change in the fundamentals. <\/p>\n

The rupee has sold
\n off further in the past days amid surging oil prices. Higher oil prices are
\n negative for the rupee because India imports most of its crude, so a larger oil
\n bill increases demand for dollars, widens the trade deficit and puts downward
\n pressure on INR.<\/p>\n

In the short-term,
\n the INR will continue to be driven by oil prices and the hawkish\/dovish
\n repricing in Fed interest rate expectations. Therefore, the pair might keep
\n trading in the wide range for longer until the US and Iran find an agreement
\n and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. <\/p>\n

In the big
\n picture, the Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US dollar,
\n so dip-buyers will continue to look for opportunities around strong major technical
\n levels to keep pushing the USD\/INR pair into new highs. <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily
\n chart, we can see that USDINR<\/a>erased all the losses from the repeated RBI interventions and it\u2019s
\n now trading at the major 96.10 resistance. We can expect the sellers to step in
\n here with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a pullback into the
\n 95.10 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break above the
\n resistance to increase the bullish bets into the 97.30 level next.<\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour
\n chart, we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we get a
\n pullback into it, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with a
\n defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other
\n hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 95.10
\n support.<\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour
\n chart, there\u2019s not much we can add here as the buyers will have a better risk
\n to reward setup around the trendline, while the sellers will want to see a
\n break to open the door for new lows.<\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Tomorrow<\/a>, we have the
\n FOMC rate decision. On Thursday, we get the US Jobless Claims figures. Traders
\n will also keep a close eye on developments in the Middle East. <\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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