{"id":438119,"date":"2026-09-15T19:13:57","date_gmt":"2026-09-15T12:13:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/morning-kickstart-usd-higher-as-markets-await-tomorrows-expected-fed-rate-hike-438119\/"},"modified":"2026-09-15T19:13:57","modified_gmt":"2026-09-15T12:13:57","slug":"morning-kickstart-usd-higher-as-markets-await-tomorrows-expected-fed-rate-hike","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/morning-kickstart-usd-higher-as-markets-await-tomorrows-expected-fed-rate-hike-438119\/","title":{"rendered":"Morning Kickstart: USD higher as markets await tomorrow\u2019s expected Fed rate hike"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p dir=\"auto\" class=\"PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer\">The US dollar is higher against all the major currencies in early North American trading. The greenback has its largest gains against the JPY and NZD, while its smallest gain is against the EUR.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">The gains come as Treasury yields move higher, crude oil remains above $102 and US stock futures trade modestly lower.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">All of this comes ahead of tomorrow\u2019s Federal Reserve rate decision. The Fed is widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points, lifting the target range to 3.75%\u20134.00%. It would be the first Fed rate increase since July 2023.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">The decision will be released at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, followed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh\u2019s press conference at 2:30 PM ET. The meeting will also include updated economic projections and a new dot plot. Traders will be looking beyond the expected hike for clues about whether this represents a one-time adjustment or the start of a broader tightening cycle.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">In the morning video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs\u2014EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD\u2014from a technical perspective. What levels are in play? What would increase the bullish or bearish bias? Where should buyers and sellers enter\u2014and where should they get out if the price action does not go their way?<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">The USD is higher<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">The percentage changes of the USD versus the major currencies show:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\nJPY: USD +0.29%\n<\/li>\n<li>\nNZD: USD +0.21%\n<\/li>\n<li>\nCAD: USD +0.12%\n<\/li>\n<li>\nAUD: USD +0.11%\n<\/li>\n<li>\nCHF: USD +0.10%\n<\/li>\n<li>\nGBP: USD +0.08%\n<\/li>\n<li>\nEUR: USD +0.06%\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"auto\">The USD is the strongest currency overall, while the JPY is the weakest of the major currencies.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">For clarification, USDJPY, USDCHF and USDCAD are quoted with the dollar as the base currency. When those pairs rise, the dollar is strengthening.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD have the foreign currency as the base currency. When those pairs fall, the dollar is strengthening.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">US stocks are modestly lower in premarket trading<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">As of 7:45 AM ET, US futures are implying:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\nDow Industrial Average: \u221293.20 points\n<\/li>\n<li>\nS&amp;P 500: \u22123.00 points\n<\/li>\n<li>\nNasdaq 100: \u22129.41 points\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"auto\">The declines are relatively modest after Monday\u2019s heavier selling in AI, semiconductor and other mega-cap technology shares.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">The move in the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% remains a concern for growth stocks. Higher yields increase the discount rate applied to future earnings, which can put additional pressure on companies trading at elevated valuations.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">Middle East tensions remain supportive for oil<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">Middle East risks remain elevated as Iran-backed Houthi forces continue their offensive in Yemen and increase pressure on Saudi Arabia and regional shipping routes.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">The Houthis launched another wave of missiles and drones against Saudi Arabia, including an attack targeting a military airbase at Khamis Mushait. Saudi officials said 13 civilians were injured.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">The group is also consolidating positions along Yemen\u2019s western coast after capturing Perim Island near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The strategic location sits at the entrance to the Red Sea and is important for oil and commercial shipping moving between the Indian Ocean and the Suez Canal.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">The developments are particularly significant because Saudi Arabia\u2019s East-West pipeline remains largely offline following last week\u2019s attack. The pipeline normally allows Saudi crude to bypass the partially disrupted Strait of Hormuz and move to export terminals on the Red Sea.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">Meanwhile, Gulf states postponed planned talks with Iran over reopening the Strait of Hormuz. There is currently no new timetable for those discussions. Although tanker-tracking data show some signs of traffic recovering, oil and gas flows remain well below normal levels.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">The combination of restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, growing threats near Bab el-Mandeb and damage to Saudi export infrastructure continues to keep a geopolitical risk premium in oil prices.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">WTI crude is trading at $102.24, up $0.85 or 0.84%.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">China\u2019s economy remains uneven<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">China\u2019s latest economic data showed a continued divide between stronger industrial production and weak domestic demand. Industrial production rose 5.2% year over year, beating the 4.8% estimate and accelerating from 4.5% previously. However, retail sales increased only 0.4%, below the 0.7% estimate and the prior 0.6% gain. Fixed-asset investment contracted 7.2% year to date, compared with a 6.7% decline previously, while the unemployment rate rose to 5.3% from 5.2%. New-home prices also fell 0.17% during the month after declining 0.18% previously. The numbers show that manufacturing\u2014particularly technology and advanced production\u2014is holding up better, but consumers, property and investment remain significant drags on the Chinese economy.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to travel to Washington on September 24 for a summit with President Trump. Trade, technology restrictions, agricultural purchases and broader geopolitical tensions are expected to be among the major topics. Xi is also preparing to bring a large delegation of Chinese business executives with him.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">European data was mixed<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">UK labor data showed a larger increase in jobless claims, although the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\nUK claimant count change: +27,800 versus +8,300 previously\n<\/li>\n<li>\nUK average earnings: +3.9%, unchanged from the prior reading\n<\/li>\n<li>\nUK unemployment rate: 4.9% versus 5.0% previously\n<\/li>\n<li>\nGerman wholesale prices: +0.9% month over month versus +0.1% previously\n<\/li>\n<li>\nFrench final CPI: +0.7%, unchanged from the preliminary estimate\n<\/li>\n<li>\nItalian trade surplus: \u20ac8.24 billion versus \u20ac4.77 billion previously\n<\/li>\n<li>\nEurozone trade surplus: \u20ac5.0 billion versus \u20ac3.7 billion previously\n<\/li>\n<li>\nGerman ZEW economic sentiment: 34.7 versus 39.8 previously\n<\/li>\n<li>\nEurozone ZEW economic sentiment: 25.8 versus 39.2 previously\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"auto\">The German and Eurozone ZEW readings point to a deterioration in investor confidence, likely reflecting higher energy prices, rising yields and continued geopolitical uncertainty.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">European stocks are mostly lower<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\nGermany\u2019s DAX: \u22120.08%\n<\/li>\n<li>\nFrance\u2019s CAC: \u22120.27%\n<\/li>\n<li>\nUK\u2019s FTSE 100: \u22120.36%\n<\/li>\n<li>\nSpain\u2019s Ibex: +0.03%\n<\/li>\n<li>\nItaly\u2019s FTSE MIB: \u22120.01%\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"auto\">US Treasury yields are higher<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">The yield curve is moving higher, with the largest increases at the longer end:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n2-year yield: 4.652%, +1.8 basis points\n<\/li>\n<li>\n5-year yield: 4.754%, +2.6 basis points\n<\/li>\n<li>\n10-year yield: 5.004%, +4.3 basis points\n<\/li>\n<li>\n30-year yield: 5.374%, +4.6 basis points\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"auto\">The 10-year yield is back above the psychologically important 5.00% level. That is helping support the dollar while creating another potential headwind for stocks.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">The steeper move at the long end also suggests that traders are concerned about the longer-term inflation outlook, particularly with oil prices remaining above $100.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">Other markets<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\nCrude oil: $102.24, +$0.85 or +0.84%\n<\/li>\n<li>\nGold: $4,283.10, \u2212$14.70 or \u22120.34%\n<\/li>\n<li>\nSilver: $63.21, \u2212$0.01 or \u22120.02%\n<\/li>\n<li>\nCopper: $6.4110, +0.10%\n<\/li>\n<li>\nBitcoin: $76,895, \u2212$1,290 or \u22121.65%\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"auto\">Gold is moving lower as both the dollar and Treasury yields rise. That is the more traditional relationship: a stronger dollar and higher yields make non-interest-bearing gold less attractive at the margin.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">Bitcoin is also under pressure and is the weakest of the major markets shown above.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">Today\u2019s US economic calendar<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n8:15 AM ET: ADP weekly employment pulse\n<\/li>\n<li>\n8:30 AM ET: New York Fed manufacturing index\n<\/li>\n<li>\n8:30 AM ET: Wholesale trade\n<\/li>\n<li>\n8:55 AM ET: Redbook weekly retail sales\n<\/li>\n<li>\n1:00 PM ET: US 20-year bond auction\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"auto\">The New York Fed manufacturing index is expected at 15.0, down from 20.6 previously.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">The 20-year bond auction will also be closely watched after the 10-year yield moved above 5%. A weak auction could put additional upward pressure on longer-term yields.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"auto\">However, the main event remains tomorrow\u2019s Federal Reserve decision. A 25-basis-point increase is largely expected. The bigger market reaction will likely depend on the dot plot, the updated projections and whether Kevin Warsh signals that additional rate increases are likely in the months ahead. The decision and statement are scheduled for 2:00 PM ET, with the press conference at 2:30 PM ET<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The US dollar is higher against all the major currencies in early North American trading. The greenback has its largest gains against the JPY and NZD, while its smallest gain is against&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-438119","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438119","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=438119"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438119\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=438119"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=438119"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=438119"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}