{"id":438123,"date":"2026-09-15T19:40:37","date_gmt":"2026-09-15T12:40:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/gold-remains-under-pressure-ahead-of-the-fomc-as-markets-focus-on-the-dot-plot-438123\/"},"modified":"2026-09-15T19:40:37","modified_gmt":"2026-09-15T12:40:37","slug":"gold-remains-under-pressure-ahead-of-the-fomc-as-markets-focus-on-the-dot-plot","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/gold-remains-under-pressure-ahead-of-the-fomc-as-markets-focus-on-the-dot-plot-438123\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold remains under pressure ahead of the FOMC as markets focus on the dot plot"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Gold has been
\n under pressure to start the week as the elevated oil prices and the FOMC
\n decision kept traders on the defensive. As a reminder, on Friday, we got a higher-than-expected
\n US monthly core inflation reading that sealed the September Fed rate hike. The
\n market is currently pricing in a 92% chance of an increase tomorrow. <\/p>\n

With a rate hike
\n already priced in, traders will focus on the dot plot and the Fed\u2019s communication.
\n The expectations are for the Fed to signal another rate hike by the end of the
\n year and possibly another one in 2027. Very few expect three or more hikes.<\/p>\n

If the Fed signals
\n three or more, that would likely be taken as a hawkish surprise and trigger a
\n selloff in gold. Conversely, a forecast suggesting just one more rate hike
\n could be taken as dovish and could give gold a boost.\u00a0The press conference
\n is not expected to give away much given Warsh\u2019s preference for limited forward guidance.\n <\/p>\n

The other major
\n focus will be developments in the Middle East, as oil prices continue to trade
\n above $100 level and fuel inflation concerns amid worsening disruptions and
\n supply fears. Oil prices have been the key driver of markets recently, so any
\n de-escalation in the Middle East could push oil prices lower and lead to a dovish
\n repricing, which could ultimately support gold.<\/p>\n

For now, I think
\n the fundamentals point to further downside for gold as we would need a
\n de-escalation in the Middle East or a dovish Fed to change the picture. <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see gold probed below the key 4,300 support but the bearish momentum hasn\u2019t
\n increased. The buyers will want to see the price rising back above the support
\n zone to pile in for a rally into the 4,890 level. The sellers, on the other
\n hand, will continue to step in around the support with a defined risk above it
\n to keep pushing into the 3,885 level next.<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 4
\n HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we
\n have a downward trendline defining the bearish structure. If we get a pullback
\n into the trendline, we can expect the sellers to lean on it with a defined risk
\n above it to position for a drop into the 3,885 level. The buyers, on the other
\n hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 4,890
\n level next.<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 1
\n HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, we
\n have a consolidation between the 4,250 and 4,320 levels. The buyers will want
\n to see the price breaking higher to pile in for a pullback into the trendline,
\n while the sellers will look for a break lower to extend the drop into new lows.
\n The red lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today. <\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Tomorrow<\/a>, we have the
\n FOMC rate decision. On Thursday, we get the US Jobless Claims figures. Traders
\n will also keep a close eye on developments in the Middle East. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 Gold has been under pressure to start the week as the elevated oil prices and the FOMC decision kept traders on the defensive. As a reminder, on Friday, we…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-438123","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438123","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=438123"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438123\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=438123"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=438123"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=438123"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}