{"id":438198,"date":"2026-09-16T16:45:58","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T09:45:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/gold-traders-await-the-fomc-decision-for-the-next-direction-what-details-to-watch-438198\/"},"modified":"2026-09-16T16:45:58","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T09:45:58","slug":"gold-traders-await-the-fomc-decision-for-the-next-direction-what-details-to-watch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/gold-traders-await-the-fomc-decision-for-the-next-direction-what-details-to-watch-438198\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold traders await the FOMC decision for the next direction. What details to watch?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Gold probed below
\n the key $4,300 support this week but hasn\u2019t confirmed the breakout, as the
\n price got stuck in a consolidation. This morning, we are seeing some bids, but
\n it could be just noise ahead of the FOMC
\n decision<\/a> later today. <\/p>\n

The decision could
\n trigger big moves, especially if we get deviations from the expectations. The
\n consensus is for the Fed to hike by 25 bps, with potentially one or two dissenters
\n voting for a hold. At this meeting, we get the Summary of Economic Projections
\n (SEP) and the Dot Plot. <\/p>\n

Traders will be focused
\n on the latter where the Fed is expected to project two more rate hikes, one in
\n 2026 and one in 2027. This would still be below the current market pricing of
\n three more rate hikes by the end of 2027. Fed Chair Warsh is not expected to offer
\n much in terms of forward guidance but just repeat his Jackson
\n Hole message<\/a>. <\/p>\n

If the Fed signals
\n three or more further hikes, that would likely be taken as a hawkish surprise
\n and weigh on gold. Conversely, a forecast suggesting just one or two more rate
\n hikes could be taken as dovish and could give gold a boost. <\/p>\n

The other major
\n focus will be developments in the Middle East, as oil prices continue to trade
\n above $100 level and fuel inflation concerns amid worsening disruptions. Oil
\n prices have been the key driver of markets recently, so any de-escalation in
\n the Middle East could push oil prices lower and lead to a dovish repricing, which
\n could ultimately support gold.<\/p>\n

For now, I think
\n the fundamentals point to further downside for gold as we would need a
\n de-escalation in the Middle East or a dovish Fed to change the picture. <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see gold rebounded yesterday as the price rose back above the key 4,300 support.
\n The buyers will likely continue to step in around these levels with a defined
\n risk below the support to position for a rally into the 4,890 level. The
\n sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the
\n support to pile in for a drop into the 3,885 level next.<\/p>\n

GOLD
\n TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we
\n have a downward trendline defining the bearish structure. If we get a pullback
\n into the trendline, we can expect the sellers to lean on it with a defined risk
\n above it to position for a drop into the 3,885 level. The buyers, on the other
\n hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 4,890
\n level next, with the 4,510 level as the first target.<\/p>\n

GOLD
\n TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, we
\n have a minor downward trendline acting as resistance. The sellers will likely step
\n in around the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new
\n lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to extend the rally
\n into the next trendline. The red lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today. <\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a>, we have the
\n FOMC rate decision. Tomorrow, we get the US Jobless Claims figures. Traders
\n will also keep a close eye on developments in the Middle East.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 Gold probed below the key $4,300 support this week but hasn\u2019t confirmed the breakout, as the price got stuck in a consolidation. This morning, we are seeing some bids,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-438198","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438198","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=438198"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438198\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=438198"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=438198"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=438198"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}