{"id":438266,"date":"2026-09-17T16:56:04","date_gmt":"2026-09-17T09:56:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/gold-xau-usd-analysis-the-market-overreacts-to-fed-decision-middle-east-and-data-now-in-focus-438266\/"},"modified":"2026-09-17T16:56:04","modified_gmt":"2026-09-17T09:56:04","slug":"gold-xau-usd-analysis-the-market-overreacts-to-fed-decision-middle-east-and-data-now-in-focus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/gold-xau-usd-analysis-the-market-overreacts-to-fed-decision-middle-east-and-data-now-in-focus-438266\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold (XAU\/USD) analysis: The market overreacts to Fed decision; Middle East and data now in focus"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Gold probed below
\n the key $4,300 support again yesterday following the FOMC rate decision but
\n eventually erased the losses. The Fed hiked by
\n 25 bps as widely expected and projected one more rate hike in 2026. The central
\n bank then forecasted rates to remain on hold throughout 2027, before coming
\n down in 2028. <\/p>\n

The market
\n reaction to the decision was hawkish, even though there was nothing hawkish in
\n it. The main takeaway from the event is that the Fed has low appetite for tightening.
\n In fact, the consensus was for one more rate hike in 2026 and one in 2027. <\/p>\n

The market, on the
\n other hand, was pricing one more rate hike in 2026 and two in 2027. The Fed
\n matched the 2026 expectations but missed completely on the 2027 outlook. The
\n committee bias was therefore less hawkish than the market. <\/p>\n

Fed Chair Warsh
\n was also labelled more hawkish than expected, but in reality, he mostly
\n repeated his Jackson Hole speech with a few minor changes to reflect the rate
\n hike. After the overreaction, the market erased the losses and rallied back to
\n pre-FOMC levels. You can read a comprehensive overview here<\/a>.\n <\/p>\n

Looking ahead, I
\n would carefully watch the situation in the Middle East as $100 oil, rate hikes
\n and elevated bond yields might put more pressure on Trump to end the war. Look
\n for signs of de-escalation as that’s going to weigh on oil prices. Oil has been
\n the main driver of pretty much all other markets given its influence on
\n inflation and interest rate expectations. Lower oil prices would trigger a
\n dovish repricing and support risk sentiment. Of course, the opposite is true if
\n things escalate further.<\/p>\n

Watch also the
\n economic data. When the market pricing and expectations get overstretched, it
\n doesn’t take much to see a strong reversal. If the data starts surprising to
\n the downside and pointing to slowing economic activity, the aggressive rate
\n hike bets will likely get pared back and support gold.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see gold (xau\/usd CFD)<\/a> probed below the key 4,300 support again yesterday but eventually rebounded.
\n This could be a bullish signal. The buyers will likely continue to step in
\n around these levels with a defined risk below the support to position for a
\n rally into the 4,890 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see
\n the price falling back below the support to pile in for a drop into the 3,885
\n level next.<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 4
\n HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we
\n have a downward trendline defining the bearish structure. If we get a pullback
\n into the trendline, we can expect the sellers to lean on it with a defined risk
\n above it to position for a drop into the 3,885 level. The buyers, on the other
\n hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 4,890
\n level next, with the 4,510 level as the first target.<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 1
\n HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, there\u2019s
\n not much we can add here. The buyers will likely continue to pile in around the
\n support to keep pushing into the trendline, while the sellers will look for
\n short opportunities below the support zone. The Fed decision didn\u2019t change the
\n picture much. The red lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today. <\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a>we get the US Jobless Claims figures.
\n Traders will now be laser-focused on developments in the Middle East as they are
\n going to be key for interest rate expectations.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 Gold probed below the key $4,300 support again yesterday following the FOMC rate decision but eventually erased the losses. The Fed hiked by 25 bps as widely expected and…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-438266","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438266","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=438266"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438266\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=438266"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=438266"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=438266"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}