{"id":438296,"date":"2026-09-17T18:41:08","date_gmt":"2026-09-17T11:41:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/boe-leaves-bank-rate-unchanged-at-3-75-in-6-3-vote-438296\/"},"modified":"2026-09-17T18:41:08","modified_gmt":"2026-09-17T11:41:08","slug":"boe-leaves-bank-rate-unchanged-at-3-75-in-6-3-vote","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/boe-leaves-bank-rate-unchanged-at-3-75-in-6-3-vote-438296\/","title":{"rendered":"BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 3.75% in 6-3 vote"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<ul>\n<li>Bank rate decision 3.75% as expected<\/li>\n<li>Prior (July) 3.75%<\/li>\n<li>Bank rate vote 6-3 vs 6-3 expected (Pill, Greene, Mann voted to increase bank rate to 4%)<\/li>\n<li>UK inflation\u00a0likely to rise further over coming quarters<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">Monetary policy is being set to ensure inflation comes down to 2% sustainably<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">The policy stance required to achieve this will depend on the scale and duration of the energy shock<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">There has been little evidence so far of material second-round effects in price and wage-setting<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">But the risk of such effects\u00a0is greater the longer higher energy prices persist or are more volatile<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">The risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside, and more so since the time of the July monetary policy report<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">Also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases to zero<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">This will be a gradual process, such that the remaining stock is unwound at an annual average pace of \u00a346 billion by 2034<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bankofengland.co.uk\/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes\/2026\/september-2026\" rel=\"follow\">Full statement<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">There are no surprises from the decision here as the BOE left the bank rate unchanged with a 6-3 vote split, while keeping the door open to tighten policy further down the road.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">BOE governor Bailey said that it would likely that policy &#8220;may have to tighten&#8221; if the Middle conflict &#8220;persists for an extended period, as appears likely&#8221; and also if &#8220;the risk of second-round effects increases&#8221;. So, that pretty much puts the central bank on a pathway to raise the bank rate in November &#8211; if need be.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">But overall, the statement doesn&#8217;t come across as being too hawkish with there not really being a sense of urgency to act either. So, that is something that markets might be picking up on in reaction to the decision.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">Coming into today, markets were pricing in a roughly 76% chance of the BOE keeping the bank rate unchanged. And with that, the pound has fallen on the decision as there is some unwinding of market positioning as the BOE does stay on hold.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">GBP\/USD is down from 1.3405 to 1.3360, falling to the lowest levels since the end of July. But unless we see the policymakers communicate much less urgency to act in November &#8211; which is unlikely, I would still take the roughly 60% to 70% odds priced in by markets as being a strong enough factor to prevent any major fallout from the pound in reaction to the decision.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\" class=\"text-align-justify\">\n<p>                            This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bank rate decision 3.75% as expected Prior (July) 3.75% Bank rate vote 6-3 vs 6-3 expected (Pill, Greene, Mann voted to increase bank rate to 4%) UK inflation\u00a0likely to rise further over&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-438296","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438296","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=438296"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438296\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=438296"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=438296"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=438296"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}