{"id":438324,"date":"2026-09-18T04:09:02","date_gmt":"2026-09-17T21:09:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/preview-rba-gov-bullock-testimony-in-focus-as-markets-price-70-75-chance-of-a-hike-438324\/"},"modified":"2026-09-18T04:09:02","modified_gmt":"2026-09-17T21:09:02","slug":"preview-rba-gov-bullock-testimony-in-focus-as-markets-price-70-75-chance-of-a-hike","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/preview-rba-gov-bullock-testimony-in-focus-as-markets-price-70-75-chance-of-a-hike-438324\/","title":{"rendered":"Preview: RBA Gov. Bullock testimony in focus as markets price 70-75% chance of a hike"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Today&#8217;s appearance is a routine parliamentary hearing rather than a policy decision, so the direct market impact should be limited unless Bullock&#8217;s answers shift the tone from recent RBA communication. Even so, any fresh comment on inflation persistence or the labour market could move rate pricing ahead of the September 28-29 meeting, where a further 25 basis point increase is currently priced at around 70 to 75%. <\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The Australian dollar and short end yields are the most likely to react to any hawkish or dovish surprise in the Q&amp;A, given how closely positioned markets already are for a hike. With trimmed mean inflation still running above the RBA&#8217;s 2 to 3% target band, traders will be listening for any signal on how much more tightening the board thinks is needed.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">&#8212;<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Bullock fronts parliament today with a live rate call still hanging on next month&#8217;s meeting.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Summary:<\/p>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li>RBA Governor Michele Bullock appears before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics today, alongside Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter and Assistant Governor (Financial System) Brad Jones<\/li>\n<li>The RBA raised its cash rate by 25 basis points at each of its first three 2026 meetings (3 February, 17 March, 5 May), taking it to 4.35%, before holding twice since (6 June, 11 August)<\/li>\n<li>Trimmed mean inflation, the RBA&#8217;s preferred underlying measure, was running at 3.6% annually as of the July data, still above the 2-3% target band<\/li>\n<li>The RBA&#8217;s next decision falls on 28-29 September, with a further 25 basis point hike currently priced at around 70 to 75%<\/li>\n<li>Today&#8217;s hearing is a routine parliamentary appearance rather than a scheduled monetary policy speech, though any comment on inflation or rates could still move pricing ahead of next month&#8217;s meeting<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock appears before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics today, accompanied by Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter and Assistant Governor (Financial System) Brad Jones. The appearance is a routine parliamentary hearing at which the Governor updates the committee on the Bank&#8217;s operations before taking questions, rather than a scheduled monetary policy speech, but the timing puts it firmly on the radar of currency and rates traders.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The RBA is in the midst of a rate hiking cycle that resumed early this year. The board lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points at each of its first three meetings of 2026, on 3 February, 17 March and 5 May, taking it to 4.35%. It has since held twice, at its 6 June and 11 August meetings, judging that the earlier increases needed time to work through the economy. At the August meeting the board kept policy on hold unanimously, noting that financial conditions had tightened following the three earlier hikes and that the economy appeared to be slowing broadly as expected.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Inflation remains the key swing factor. The RBA&#8217;s preferred trimmed mean measure, which strips out the most volatile price moves, was running at 3.6% year on year as of the July data, unchanged from the prior reading and still above the top of the bank&#8217;s 2% to 3% target band. Headline CPI eased to 3.5% over the same period. That combination, cooling headline inflation alongside sticky underlying price pressure, is the backdrop against which markets are pricing today&#8217;s testimony and next month&#8217;s decision.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The board&#8217;s next scheduled meeting falls on 28-29 September, and a further 25 basis point increase is currently priced at around 70% to 75%, reflecting a market view that the inflation fight is not yet over even as the economy shows signs of slowing. Today&#8217;s committee hearing gives Bullock and her colleagues a chance to address that pricing directly through questions from MPs, though any market reaction is likely to hinge on unscripted responses rather than a prepared statement.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">There&#8217;s also a running, mostly quietly spoken tension between the RBA and the government over spending&#8217;s role in inflation. Bullock has acknowledged in past parliamentary hearings that public demand feeds into the same aggregate demand pressures the Bank is trying to cool, telling one committee plainly that it doesn&#8217;t take much additional spending to make the job of returning inflation to target more challenging. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has pushed back on any suggestion the government is the main culprit, pointing instead to private demand and global factors such as elevated energy prices. Neither side tends to press the point too hard in public, and today&#8217;s hearing is unlikely to change that, but the underlying friction over how much fiscal policy is complicating the RBA&#8217;s task remains part of the backdrop to any further hike.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Australian Treasurer Chalmers<\/p>\n<p>                            This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Today&#8217;s appearance is a routine parliamentary hearing rather than a policy decision, so the direct market impact should be limited unless Bullock&#8217;s answers shift the tone from recent RBA communication. Even so,&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-438324","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438324","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=438324"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438324\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=438324"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=438324"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=438324"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}