{"id":438404,"date":"2026-09-21T09:00:25","date_gmt":"2026-09-21T02:00:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/all-four-major-australian-banks-now-forecast-rba-hike-to-4-60-on-september-29-438404\/"},"modified":"2026-09-21T09:00:25","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T02:00:25","slug":"all-four-major-australian-banks-now-forecast-rba-hike-to-4-60-on-september-29","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/all-four-major-australian-banks-now-forecast-rba-hike-to-4-60-on-september-29-438404\/","title":{"rendered":"All four major Australian banks now forecast RBA hike to 4.60% on September 29"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">With September about 90% priced, the hike itself is unlikely to move the Australian dollar or the front end of the curve, and a hold would be the bigger surprise. The reaction is more likely to turn on the statement and the vote, given that the banks differ on whether the decision will be unanimous, and on whether the Board signals a willingness to go further. Firm guidance of a follow-up would support the currency and keep pressure on rate-sensitive sectors such as housing-linked stocks, while a softer tone would do the opposite. Oil is the other swing factor, since higher fuel costs are feeding the inflation case, and a de-escalation in the Middle East would weaken it.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\">&#8212;<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Earlier:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/investinglive.com\/central-banks\/ubs-sees-two-more-rba-hikes-to-4-85-terminal-rate-after-bullock-s-comments\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"follow\">UBS sees two more RBA hikes to 4.85% terminal rate after Bullock&#8217;s comments<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">&#8212;<br \/>\nAustralia&#8217;s big four banks now agree the RBA will hike on September 29, but they differ on whether the Board will be unanimous and on how much tightening follows.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Summary:<\/p>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li>Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, NAB and ANZ all now forecast the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% at its September 28 to 29 meeting.<\/li>\n<li>The shift follows Governor Michele Bullock&#8217;s comment to a parliamentary committee on Friday that some of the upside inflation risks flagged in August appear to be materialising.<\/li>\n<li>CBA cites oil near $100, stronger than expected July CPI and GDP, and hawkish RBA communications, and expects a unanimous decision with hawkish language. Market pricing for September has risen to about 90% from about 30% before July CPI.<\/li>\n<li>Westpac says hawkish rhetoric outweighs tactical reasons to wait until November, but expects a split vote, reflecting differing views on supply capacity, labour supply and labour market slack.<\/li>\n<li>CBA sees the risk of a follow-up hike to 4.85% if September quarter trimmed mean inflation is 1% or higher, and has pushed its expected rate cuts to August and November 2027.<\/li>\n<li>Westpac also flags a risk of a follow-up hike and would revise its August 2027 start for cuts if one enters its base case.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\nAustralia&#8217;s four major banks now forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% from 4.35% at its September 28 to 29 meeting, after Governor Michele Bullock said on Friday that some of the upside inflation risks flagged in August appear to be materialising. Market pricing has followed, with about 90% of a September hike priced in, according to CBA, compared with about 30% before the July CPI release.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">In a note published on Monday, CBA&#8217;s head of Australian economics, Belinda Allen, said the bank has brought forward its expected hike from November. She pointed to a build-up of factors, including a rise in Brent oil to around $100 from around $80 over three weeks, driven by damage to Saudi Arabia&#8217;s East-West pipeline, Houthi activity and restrained traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. She also cited stronger than expected July CPI and GDP, and hawkish comments from RBA Deputy Governor Hauser, Assistant Governor Hunter and Bullock. CBA expects a unanimous decision and hawkish language in the post-meeting statement, and noted that the case to hold will get attention, given a slowing economy, falling home prices and a labour market closer to balance.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Westpac Chief Economist Luci Ellis also shifted her call to September, saying the Governor&#8217;s comment met the condition the Board set in August for further hikes. She acknowledged tactical reasons to wait, including the release of August monthly CPI the day after the meeting, and the possibility that Middle East de-escalation, a fuel excise adjustment or a soft labour report could create awkward optics. She concluded that the hawkish rhetoric outweighs them. Westpac expects a split vote, citing differing views on trend productivity, labour supply and labour market slack, with underemployment having risen materially.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">NAB&#8217;s economists had already forecast a September hike, with the risk biased toward a further increase in November if activity data show resilience. ANZ has also moved to September and expects a further hike in November, having earlier said a September move would be a hawkish signal that pointed to another.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Beyond September, CBA said the risks lie with higher rates, and that a strong September quarter trimmed mean reading of 1% or more could see the RBA lift the rate to 4.85%. Its base case is unchanged at one hike, and it has pushed its expected rate cuts out to August and November 2027, from May. Westpac also sees a risk of a follow-up hike and would adjust its August 2027 start for cuts if one entered its base case.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">&#8211;<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The four banks now agree on timing, but they differ on the vote and the path afterwards, so the guidance and the vote split may matter more to markets than the decision. Fuel is a live pressure point, with ABC reporting diesel at around $3 a litre or more, more than double its level at the start of the year. The next signposts are the labour force data this week, the monthly CPI print the day after the meeting, the September quarter CPI, and oil and Middle East headlines.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p>                            This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With September about 90% priced, the hike itself is unlikely to move the Australian dollar or the front end of the curve, and a hold would be the bigger surprise. The reaction&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-438404","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438404","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=438404"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438404\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=438404"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=438404"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=438404"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}