{"id":438518,"date":"2026-09-22T12:05:27","date_gmt":"2026-09-22T05:05:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/fed-rate-hike-bets-support-the-us-dollar-but-how-much-further-can-it-run-438518\/"},"modified":"2026-09-22T12:05:27","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T05:05:27","slug":"fed-rate-hike-bets-support-the-us-dollar-but-how-much-further-can-it-run","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/fed-rate-hike-bets-support-the-us-dollar-but-how-much-further-can-it-run-438518\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed rate hike bets support the US dollar, but how much further can it run?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The dollar is finally starting to respond more convincingly to the shift in the rates backdrop, and both ANZ and Credit Agricole see reasons for that support to extend in the near-term.<\/p>\n

However,\u00a0there is a subtle difference in the way that they are framing the move.<\/p>\n

ANZ says it expects “the front-end repricing to keep the USD supported into October”, although it is already \u201cwary of chasing it\u201d. And that distinction matters.<\/p>\n

The firm argues that dollar shorts had already built up steadily beforehand, meaning some of the latest strength may reflect short-covering rather than a fresh wave of bullish positioning.<\/p>\n

That leaves the underlying rates story doing most of the heavy lifting I would say. More hawkish Fed expectations and higher front-end US yields continue to favour the dollar. And that is a view also shared by Credit Agricole in their latest dollar outlook.<\/p>\n

The firm argues that\u00a0the dollar has started to \u201cclose the gap\u201d with its relative rate and yield advantage, while still trading at a \u201chuge discount\u201d to those fundamentals.<\/p>\n

From that perspective,\u00a0the more bullish dollar argument is still fairly straightforward. That being\u00a0US rates remain relatively attractive and the currency may not yet fully reflect that advantage.<\/p>\n

The only question is how much upside potential is left.<\/p>\n

ANZ sees the long end of the Treasury curve as more of a constraint. The firm notes that:\u00a0“Heavier issuance alongside rising US interest costs is increasingly USD-negative rather than supportive.”<\/p>\n

They still see mild upside risks for the dollar in the week ahead but warns that DXY gains may be capped closer to 101.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Credit Agricole flags geopolitical risks\u00a0as the wildcard. The Trump-Xi summit and Middle East developments\u00a0could influence the dollar\u2019s safe-haven appeal, particularly if either trade or geopolitical tensions escalate again.<\/p>\n

In putting all of that together, the signal I would gather is that the fundamental support for the dollar is still there. However,\u00a0the easy part of the move higher may already have come and gone.<\/p>\n

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This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The dollar is finally starting to respond more convincingly to the shift in the rates backdrop, and both ANZ and Credit Agricole see reasons for that support to extend in the near-term.…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-438518","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438518","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=438518"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438518\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=438518"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=438518"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=438518"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}