{"id":438812,"date":"2026-09-25T14:25:56","date_gmt":"2026-09-25T07:25:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/usd-inr-continues-to-follow-oil-prices-in-lockstep-as-focus-shifts-to-us-iran-negotiations-whats-next-438812\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T14:25:56","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T07:25:56","slug":"usd-inr-continues-to-follow-oil-prices-in-lockstep-as-focus-shifts-to-us-iran-negotiations-whats-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/usd-inr-continues-to-follow-oil-prices-in-lockstep-as-focus-shifts-to-us-iran-negotiations-whats-next-438812\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/INR continues to follow oil prices in lockstep as focus shifts to US-Iran negotiations. What’s next?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

USD:<\/p>\n

The US dollar has
\n been under some pressure at the start of the week as the sharp decline in oil prices on expectations of a de-escalation and an earlier
\n end to the conflict increased going into the UN General Assembly. <\/p>\n

However, those expectations faded after the UN
\n General Assembly, where Trump reiterated that the US would make a deal with
\n Iran after the November elections. His remarks reduced optimism over a
\n near-term resolution and contributed to a renewed rise in oil prices.<\/p>\n

Risk sentiment subsequently deteriorated, with the
\n greenback strengthening across the board and then extending the gains on Wednesday
\n after the US Flash PMIs<\/a>came out much stronger than expected. The data triggered
\n another hawkish repricing, sending Treasury yields to new highs.<\/p>\n

The markets are currently focused on renewed
\n hopes for quick de-escalation and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
\n following yesterday’s news that Iran has put a fast-track offer on the table,
\n promising to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US meets its
\n terms. Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi is staying in New York over the weekend
\n to await a US response. <\/p>\n

A breakthrough would be negative for the US
\n dollar in the short-term as the aggressive rate hike bets will likely get pared
\n back. A prolonged stalemate or even a re-escalation, on the other hand, will
\n likely continue to support the greenback into new highs.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

INR:<\/p>\n

On the INR side, the
\n rupee has followed crude oil in lockstep this week, strengthening into the UN
\n General Assembly on positive expectations about a quick resolution and weakening
\n after oil prices rebounded on fading hopes. <\/p>\n

Higher oil prices
\n are negative for the rupee because India imports most of its crude, so a larger
\n oil bill increases demand for dollars, widens the trade deficit and puts
\n downward pressure on INR.<\/p>\n

In the short-term,
\n the INR will continue to be driven mainly by oil prices, so the US-Iran
\n negotiations will be key. A breakthrough should give the Indian rupee a boost
\n and we might see the USD\/INR pair dropping back to the 95.10 support pretty
\n quickly. Conversely, an extended stalemate or even a re-escalation will likely continue
\n to support the pair into new highs.<\/p>\n

In the big
\n picture, the Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US dollar,
\n so dip-buyers will continue to look for opportunities around strong major technical
\n levels to keep pushing the USD\/INR pair into new highs. <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily
\n chart, we can see that USDINR<\/a>is trading at the major resistance zone around the 96.10 level. The
\n sellers will likely continue to step in around the resistance, with a defined
\n risk above it, to position for a drop back into the 95.10 support. The buyers,
\n on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the
\n bullish bets into the record highs next.<\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour
\n chart, we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we get another
\n pullback into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it, with a
\n defined risk below it, to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the
\n other hand, will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into the 95.10
\n support.<\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour
\n chart, there\u2019s not much we can add here as the buyers will have a better risk
\n to reward setup around the trendline, while the sellers will want to see a
\n break to target new lows. Nevertheless, a break above the recent high around
\n the 96.40 level could increase the bullish momentum, especially if it\u2019s coupled
\n with a surge in oil prices due to negative US-Iran developments. <\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a> we don\u2019t have anything
\n on the agenda but traders will keep a close eye on US-Iran developments after yesterday\u2019s
\n proposal of reopening the Strait of Hormuz under certain conditions.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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