{"id":438818,"date":"2026-09-25T15:18:52","date_gmt":"2026-09-25T08:18:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/gold-xau-usd-analysis-renewed-hopes-for-us-iran-deal-avert-a-collapse-what-to-watch-438818\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T15:18:52","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T08:18:52","slug":"gold-xau-usd-analysis-renewed-hopes-for-us-iran-deal-avert-a-collapse-what-to-watch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/gold-xau-usd-analysis-renewed-hopes-for-us-iran-deal-avert-a-collapse-what-to-watch-438818\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold (XAU\/USD) analysis: Renewed hopes for US-Iran deal avert a collapse. What to watch?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Gold came back under pressure after Trump poured some cold water on expectations of an earlier
\n end to the Iran war after he repeated that the US would make a deal with Tehran
\n after the November elections. Oil prices, Treasury yields and the US dollar rose
\n started to rise again after his remarks and weighed on gold. <\/p>\n

The losses then
\n extended on Wednesday after the US PMIs came out much stronger than expected, increasing
\n Fed rate hike bets and sending real yields higher. <\/p>\n

The markets are currently focused on renewed
\n hopes for a deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following
\n yesterday’s news that Iran has put an offer on the table, promising to reopen
\n the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US meets its terms. Iran’s
\n Foreign Minister Araghchi is staying in New York over the weekend to await a US
\n response. <\/p>\n

A breakthrough would be positive for gold as the
\n aggressive rate hike bets will likely get pared back and lead to a fall in real
\n yields. A prolonged stalemate or even a re-escalation, on the other hand, will
\n likely continue to put pressure on the precious metal on tightening financial
\n conditions.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see gold<\/a>(CFD contract) is currently
\n trading below the key support zone around the 4,300 level. We can expect the sellers
\n to continue to step in around these levels with a defined risk above the zone
\n to keep targeting the 3,885 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to
\n see the price rising back above the support zone to position for a rally into the
\n 4,700 level, with the 4,510 level as the first target.<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 4
\n HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we
\n have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish structure. If the price pulls
\n back into the trendline, we can expect the sellers to lean on it, with a
\n defined risk above it, to position for a break below the support and new lows.
\n The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to
\n increase the bullish bets into the 4,510 level next.<\/p>\n

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 1
\n HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, there\u2019s
\n not much we can add here as the sellers will continue to look for short
\n opportunities around the broken support or the downward trendline, while the
\n buyers will want to see upside breaks to start targeting new highs. The red
\n lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today. <\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a> we don\u2019t have anything
\n on the agenda, but traders will keep a close eye on US-Iran developments after
\n yesterday\u2019s proposal of reopening the Strait of Hormuz under certain
\n conditions.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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