{"id":438855,"date":"2026-09-25T20:51:14","date_gmt":"2026-09-25T13:51:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/audusd-breaks-below-the-200-day-ma-for-the-first-time-since-november-2025-but-cannot-sustain-downside-momentum-438855\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T20:51:14","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T13:51:14","slug":"audusd-breaks-below-the-200-day-ma-for-the-first-time-since-november-2025-but-cannot-sustain-downside-momentum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/audusd-breaks-below-the-200-day-ma-for-the-first-time-since-november-2025-but-cannot-sustain-downside-momentum-438855\/","title":{"rendered":"AUDUSD breaks below the 200 day MA for the first time since November 2025, but cannot sustain downside momentum"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

The AUDUSD has fallen sharply this week as buying of the US dollar took center stage. Fed officials struck a tougher tone on policy, Treasury yields moved higher, and the market-implied probability of an October rate hike rose to around 66% at the time of this update. Higher US yields can make the dollar more attractive relative to other currencies, adding pressure to pairs such as AUDUSD.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

The technical picture turned more bearish on Wednesday when the pair broke below its 100-day moving average with momentum. That put the 200-day moving average, currently near 0.70217, in the sellers\u2019 sights.<\/p>\n

The price reached that level early in the Asia-Pacific session yesterday and briefly broke below it. Buyers responded, pushing the pair back up, but the recovery stalled before the 0.70515 midpoint of the rise from the late-June low. The high reached 0.70447. By the end of the day, AUDUSD had turned lower again and closed below its 200-day moving average.<\/p>\n

Today brought another test. The pair fell to 0.7005 in early Asia-Pacific trading, its lowest level since August 4. Broader US dollar selling, including a move lower in USDJPY, and improved risk sentiment then helped AUDUSD rebound above the 200-day moving average. The rally reached 0.7036, but the price has since rotated back toward that moving average.<\/p>\n

That leaves traders with a decision at a familiar level.<\/p>\n

The break below the 200-day moving average matters: it was the first in nearly 11 months. Many traders use that average as a guide to the longer-term trend. Still, AUDUSD has already fallen from 0.7237 to around 0.7000 in just 12 trading days. After a decline of that size, some sellers may take profits and some buyers may look for a bounce. A move back above the average tells us buyers are trying; it does not, by itself, tell us the decline is over.<\/p>\n

What would give buyers more control?<\/p>\n

Holding above the 200-day moving average would be a start. The next test is 0.70515, the 50% midpoint that stopped yesterday\u2019s recovery short. A move above that level would bring the 100-day and 100-hour moving averages, both currently near 0.70688, into focus. Getting back above those averages would give buyers a stronger case that the recent selling pressure is easing.<\/p>\n

What would keep sellers in control?<\/p>\n

A move back below the 200-day moving average, followed by a break under the natural support at 0.7000, would shift attention to the 0.6962\u20130.6978 swing area. Below that, traders would look toward 0.6920.<\/p>\n

For now, the 200-day moving average is the barometer. Buyers have recovered it, but they need to hold it and clear resistance above. Sellers had the pair below it at yesterday\u2019s close; a renewed break below, especially through 0.7000, would put the downside targets back in play.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The AUDUSD has fallen sharply this week as buying of the US dollar took center stage. Fed officials struck a tougher tone on policy, Treasury yields moved higher, and the market-implied probability…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-438855","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438855","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=438855"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438855\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=438855"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=438855"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=438855"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}