{"id":438937,"date":"2026-09-28T14:40:09","date_gmt":"2026-09-28T07:40:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/eur-usd-breaks-through-the-key-1-14-support-as-hopes-for-us-iran-deal-fade-438937\/"},"modified":"2026-09-28T14:40:09","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T07:40:09","slug":"eur-usd-breaks-through-the-key-1-14-support-as-hopes-for-us-iran-deal-fade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/eur-usd-breaks-through-the-key-1-14-support-as-hopes-for-us-iran-deal-fade-438937\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD breaks through the key 1.14 support as hopes for US-Iran deal fade"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

USD:<\/p>\n

The US dollar has
\n been under some pressure at the start of last week as the sharp decline in oil prices on expectations of a de-escalation and an earlier
\n end to the conflict increased going into the UN General Assembly. <\/p>\n

However, those expectations faded after the UN
\n General Assembly, where Trump reiterated that the US would make a deal with
\n Iran after the November elections. His remarks reduced optimism over a
\n near-term resolution and contributed to a renewed rise in oil prices.<\/p>\n

Moreover, on Wednesday we got very strong US Flash PMIs<\/a>that triggered another hawkish repricing in interest rate
\n expectations, sending Treasury yields to new highs and the odds for a rate hike
\n in October to 65%. <\/p>\n

Going into the weekend, the hopes for a US-Iran
\n deal returned after Iran sent a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within
\n seven days on certain conditions. Unfortunately, Trump
\n rejected the proposal on Saturday and told reporters that he expected to resume
\n bombing Iran after the midterms<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Unsurprisingly, the US dollar started the week on
\n a good note as risk-off sentiment dominated the Asian session, with crude oil
\n and Treasury yields erasing some of Friday\u2019s losses. <\/p>\n

The focus will remain mostly on the Middle East
\n and the Fed. A breakthrough would be negative for the US dollar in the
\n short-term as the aggressive rate hike bets will likely get pared back. A
\n prolonged stalemate or even a re-escalation, on the other hand, will likely
\n continue to support the greenback into new highs.<\/p>\n

EUR:<\/p>\n

On the EUR side, not much
\n has changed. As a reminder, the ECB delivered a 25 bps rate hike at
\n the last meeting<\/a>,
\n taking the deposit rate to 2.50% as widely expected. The more hawkish takeaway
\n came from the inflation outlook and the ECB’s growing concern that the Middle
\n East-driven energy shock could keep price pressures elevated for longer. The
\n ECB now sees headline inflation at 3.0% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, with both the
\n 2027 and 2028 inflation forecasts revised higher. <\/p>\n

The decision also came with
\n a stronger growth assessment, with the ECB upgrading its 2026 and 2027 growth
\n forecasts as the euro-area economy has proved more resilient than expected.
\n This gives policymakers somewhat more room to keep tightening despite the
\n inflation shock. <\/p>\n

The most important
\n development came after the decision. ECB sources indicated that
\n policymakers are already discussing another hike as early as the October<\/a> meeting if energy prices remain
\n elevated and inflation risks continue to broaden. Lagarde herself did not
\n pre-commit to October though, stressing a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting
\n approach. Therefore, traders will keep focusing on the economic data and the
\n Middle East situation.<\/p>\n

The Flash PMIs released
\n last week showed a resilient economy which gives the ECB room to tighten further
\n if needed. On Friday, we get the Eurozone Flash CPI which could decide whether
\n the central bank hikes again in October. At the moment, there is roughly a 38%
\n chance of a rate hike. <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

EURUSD TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily chart, we can
\n see that EURUSD<\/a>broke below the key support
\n zone around the 1.1400 handle. This has opened the door for a move into new lows.
\n The sellers will likely continue to step in around these levels with a defined
\n risk above the broken support to target the 1.1100 handle. The buyers, on the
\n other hand, will want to see the price rising back above the broken support to position
\n for a correction into the downward trendline around the 1.1550 level.<\/p>\n

EURUSD TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour chart, we
\n have a downward trendline that\u2019s been defining the bearish momentum. The
\n sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above
\n it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to
\n see the price breaking above the trendline and the broken support to open the
\n door for a correction into the downward trendline, with the 1.15 handle as the
\n first target. <\/p>\n

EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013
\n 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour chart, there\u2019s
\n not much we can add here but we can see that the price broke below the upward
\n counter-trendline, which generally signals new lows to come. The sellers will
\n likely pile in here with a defined risk above the downward trendline to keep
\n pushing into new lows, while the buyers will wait for the price to rise above
\n the trendline to start looking for new highs. The red lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today.<\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Tomorrow<\/a>, we get the US Consumer
\n Confidence report and the US Job Openings data. On Wednesday, we have the US
\n ADP and the US PCE price index. On Thursday, we get the US ISM Manufacturing
\n PMI and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week
\n with the Eurozone Flash CPI and the US NFP report. <\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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