{"id":439028,"date":"2026-09-29T19:40:12","date_gmt":"2026-09-29T12:40:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/usd-inr-remains-skewed-to-the-upside-amid-rising-oil-prices-but-a-us-iran-breakthrough-could-trigger-a-big-selloff-439028\/"},"modified":"2026-09-29T19:40:12","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T12:40:12","slug":"usd-inr-remains-skewed-to-the-upside-amid-rising-oil-prices-but-a-us-iran-breakthrough-could-trigger-a-big-selloff","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/usd-inr-remains-skewed-to-the-upside-amid-rising-oil-prices-but-a-us-iran-breakthrough-could-trigger-a-big-selloff-439028\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/INR remains skewed to the upside amid rising oil prices, but a US-Iran breakthrough could trigger a big selloff"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

FUNDAMENTAL
\n OVERVIEW<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

USD:<\/p>\n

The US dollar has
\n been supported recently by a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations
\n triggered by strong US economic data and renewed US-Iran tensions. <\/p>\n

The bullish momentum accelerated last
\n Wednesday when Trump poured cold water
\n on expectations of an earlier end to the Iran war after he reiterated that the
\n US would make a deal with Tehran after the November elections. <\/p>\n

Moreover, on Wednesday we also got a very strong
\n set of US Flash PMIs<\/a> that sent Treasury yields to new highs and the
\n odds for a rate hike in October to roughly 70%. <\/p>\n

Heading into the weekend, the hopes for a
\n US-Iran deal returned after Iran sent a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
\n within seven days on certain conditions. Unfortunately, Trump rejected the proposal on Saturday and told reporters that he expected
\n to resume bombing Iran after the midterms<\/a>. <\/p>\n

Yesterday, we
\n started to get some positive headlines during the American session pointing to
\n possible US concessions. According to Axios<\/a>, Trump reportedly offered Iran sanctions relief and
\n access to frozen funds in exchange for progress on nuclear program, although
\n the US President later denied such reports. <\/p>\n

He did confirm
\n though that the American and Iranian negotiators are engaged in talks through
\n mediators. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said he expected a formal answer today
\n to Tehran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. <\/p>\n

The focus will remain mostly on the Middle East
\n and the Fed. A breakthrough would be negative for the US dollar in the
\n short-term as the aggressive rate hike bets will likely get pared back. A
\n prolonged stalemate or even a re-escalation, on the other hand, will likely
\n continue to support the greenback into new highs.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

INR:<\/p>\n

On the INR side, the
\n rupee has been following oil prices as usual, with the latest upside in crude
\n due to waning hopes for a quick deal weighing on the currency. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Higher oil prices
\n are negative for the rupee because India imports most of its crude, so a larger
\n oil bill increases demand for dollars, widens the trade deficit and puts
\n downward pressure on INR.<\/p>\n

In the short-term,
\n the INR will continue to be driven mainly by oil prices, so the US-Iran
\n negotiations will be key. A breakthrough should give the Indian rupee a boost
\n and we might see the USD\/INR pair dropping back to the 95.10 support pretty
\n quickly. Conversely, a negative outcome or even a re-escalation, will likely continue
\n to support the pair into new highs.<\/p>\n

In the big
\n picture, the Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US dollar,
\n so dip-buyers will continue to look for opportunities around strong major technical
\n levels to keep pushing the USD\/INR pair into new highs. <\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the daily
\n chart, we can see that USDINR<\/a>broke above the major resistance zone around the 96.10 level. This
\n has opened the door for a rally into new record highs, with the buyers piling
\n in on the break. If the price reaches the 97.33 level, we can expect the
\n sellers to step in there, with a defined risk above the record highs, to
\n position for a correction into the 96.10 support. The buyers, on the other
\n hand, will look for a break to increase the bullish bets into new highs.<\/p>\n

USDINR
\n TECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 4 hour
\n chart, we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. The buyers
\n will likely continue to lean on the trendline, with a defined risk below it, to
\n keep targeting new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
\n price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the 95.75 level next.<\/p>\n

USDINR TECHNICAL
\n ANALYSIS \u2013 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

On the 1 hour
\n chart, there\u2019s not much we can add here as the buyers will have a better risk
\n to reward setup around the trendline, while the sellers will need a break to target
\n a pullback into the 95.75 leve next. <\/p>\n

UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n

Today<\/a>, we get the US
\n Consumer Confidence report and the US Job Openings data. Tomorrow, we have the
\n US ADP and the US PCE price index. On Thursday, we get the US ISM Manufacturing
\n PMI and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with
\n the US NFP report. The focus, though, will remain on US-Iran developments.<\/p>\n

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW \u00a0 USD: The US dollar has been supported recently by a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations triggered by strong US economic data and renewed US-Iran tensions. The bullish momentum…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-439028","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439028","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=439028"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439028\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=439028"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=439028"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=439028"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}