{"id":439064,"date":"2026-09-30T07:31:28","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T00:31:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/anz-survey-nz-business-confidence-eases-to-52-as-oil-rise-hits-late-responses-439064\/"},"modified":"2026-09-30T07:31:28","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T00:31:28","slug":"anz-survey-nz-business-confidence-eases-to-52-as-oil-rise-hits-late-responses","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/market-news\/anz-survey-nz-business-confidence-eases-to-52-as-oil-rise-hits-late-responses-439064\/","title":{"rendered":"ANZ survey: NZ business confidence eases to +52 as oil rise hits late responses"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">For the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the key message is that inflation expectations did not move as oil prices jumped, which ANZ described as encouraging while stressing it is early. Against that, wage expectations edged up and ANZ says spare capacity may be getting used up faster than the central bank assumed in its recent Monetary Policy Statement, a mild upside risk to its wage forecasts. The weaker late-month activity readings suggest the oil price rise is starting to weigh on sentiment, which could temper the case for tighter policy. New Zealand dollar and rates traders will be watching whether the late-month softness persists in the October survey.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">&#8212;<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">New Zealand firms stayed cautiously upbeat in September, but activity readings weakened once oil prices spiked, while inflation expectations held at 3.25%.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Summary:<\/p>\n<ul dir=\"ltr\">\n<li>ANZ&#8217;s September survey showed business confidence easing by around 2 points to +52, while expected own activity held steady at +48.<\/li>\n<li>Reported past activity fell 5 points to +11.<\/li>\n<li>Inflation expectations were steady at 3.25%, cost expectations rose 1 point to a net 82% of firms expecting higher costs, and pricing intentions eased 3 points to a net 48%.<\/li>\n<li>Responses received after oil rose sharply later in the month showed lower activity indicators, with own activity outlook falling to +36 in late responses from +52 early in the month.<\/li>\n<li>Manufacturing was the strongest sector for confidence at +79, with retail and services the weakest in employment and activity measures.<\/li>\n<li>ANZ&#8217;s next Business Outlook is due on October 29.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\nNew Zealand business confidence eased in September as a renewed rise in oil prices weighed on responses received later in the month, according to ANZ&#8217;s monthly Business Outlook survey. Confidence slipped around 2 points to +52, while expected own activity was steady at +48 and reported past activity fell 5 points to +11. ANZ said the survey continues to tell a story of recovering activity, with a good number of firms reporting stronger activity than a year ago.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Inflation indicators were little changed. Inflation expectations for a year ahead held at 3.25%, cost expectations rose 1 point to a net 82% of firms expecting higher costs, and pricing intentions eased 3 points to a net 48% expecting to raise prices. Firms expect costs to rise by around 2.6% over the next three months, and wage expectations for the next 12 months edged up to around 2.8% from 2.6%.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The timing of responses matters. Most were received around September 1, but around a quarter came in after a reminder went out on September 22. ANZ noted that the Dubai spot oil price rose from around $100 a barrel at the start of the month to a peak of around $128, then fell back to around $111 when the reminder went out, and it was around $108 at the time of writing. Late-month responses showed a hit to all activity indicators except investment, with the own activity outlook falling to +36 from +52 in early responses and past activity turning negative. ANZ said inflation indicators showed little movement and some even eased, which it called encouraging for the RBNZ, although it stressed it is very early.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">By sector, manufacturing was the standout, with confidence at +79 and employment intentions at +39, while retail employment intentions were negative at -11 and retail investment intentions were just +2. Construction saw residential activity intentions continue to improve, and pricing intentions in construction reached their highest level in the survey. ANZ&#8217;s monthly heatmap showed manufacturing and construction heating up, while retail, services and agriculture cooled, though it noted agriculture is easing after an excellent couple of years.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">On policy, ANZ said wage intentions suggest mild upside risk to the RBNZ&#8217;s forecasts, and that the share of firms citing skilled labour shortages is consistent with spare capacity in the economy being used up faster than assumed in the central bank&#8217;s Monetary Policy Statement earlier this month.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">In its assessment, ANZ said the recovery remains bumpy. It said the survey suggests a renewed confidence impact from higher oil prices, but that late-month activity readings were nowhere near the lows seen in late March and April. How firms respond to the renewed uncertainty will help determine how 2026 ends, it added, noting that waiting for certainty risks doing nothing for a long time. <\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p>                            This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the key message is that inflation expectations did not move as oil prices jumped, which ANZ described as encouraging while stressing it is early. Against&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":216,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-439064","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439064","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/216"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=439064"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439064\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=439064"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=439064"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.swingfish.trade\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=439064"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}